A professor is traveling by rail from City A to City D, and he must change trains at City B and City C. Because his connection times are very short, he fears that his arrival in City D will be nowhere close to schedule. Specifically, he estimates the chance of lateness as 30% for both City A-B and City B-C train con- nections, and as 20% for City C-D connections. A late train is behind schedule throughout its trip. It is assumed that all trains that are not late are on schedule and lateness of trains are independent of each other. At each junction, professor will miss his connection if the arriving train is late and departing one is on schedule. Otherwise, he will catch the train.
Addition Rule of Probability
It simply refers to the likelihood of an event taking place whenever the occurrence of an event is uncertain. The probability of a single event can be calculated by dividing the number of successful trials of that event by the total number of trials.
Expected Value
When a large number of trials are performed for any random variable ‘X’, the predicted result is most likely the mean of all the outcomes for the random variable and it is known as expected value also known as expectation. The expected value, also known as the expectation, is denoted by: E(X).
Probability Distributions
Understanding probability is necessary to know the probability distributions. In statistics, probability is how the uncertainty of an event is measured. This event can be anything. The most common examples include tossing a coin, rolling a die, or choosing a card. Each of these events has multiple possibilities. Every such possibility is measured with the help of probability. To be more precise, the probability is used for calculating the occurrence of events that may or may not happen. Probability does not give sure results. Unless the probability of any event is 1, the different outcomes may or may not happen in real life, regardless of how less or how more their probability is.
Basic Probability
The simple definition of probability it is a chance of the occurrence of an event. It is defined in numerical form and the probability value is between 0 to 1. The probability value 0 indicates that there is no chance of that event occurring and the probability value 1 indicates that the event will occur. Sum of the probability value must be 1. The probability value is never a negative number. If it happens, then recheck the calculation.
What is the probability that he will arrive at City D on schedule and What is the probability that he will make both his connections? And why is that different from the previous question?
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