Dave has just left an interview with a prospective employer. The hiring manager told Dave that she will tolerate one mistake during his first year but will fire him if he makes two mistakes. Based on Dave’s research and understanding of the job, he estimates that he will have to make five critical decisions during the year, and with his knowledge of the processes, figures that he will have about an 80% chance of making any of those five decisions correctly. Dave does not want to run any more than a 25% chance of being fired. If each of the decisions is independent of the others, should Dave risk taking the job if offered? 0.8 is the probability of making a correct decision, therefore 0.2 is the probability of making a mistake. The table below is constructed to help compute probabilities dependent on one another for making a total of 0 or 1 mistakes given the conditions above. Total Number of Mistakes 1st Decision 2nd Decision 3rd Decision 4th Decision 5th Decision P 0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 ? 1 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 ? 1 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 ? 1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.8 ? 1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.8 ? 1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 ?
Dave has just left an interview with a prospective employer. The hiring manager told Dave that she will tolerate one mistake during his first year but will fire him if he makes two mistakes. Based on Dave’s research and understanding of the job, he estimates that he will have to make five critical decisions during the year, and with his knowledge of the processes, figures that he will have about an 80% chance of making any of those five decisions correctly. Dave does not want to run any more than a 25% chance of being fired. If each of the decisions is independent of the others, should Dave risk taking the job if offered?
0.8 is the probability of making a correct decision, therefore 0.2 is the probability of making a mistake. The table below is constructed to help compute probabilities dependent on one another for making a total of 0 or 1 mistakes given the conditions above.
|
Total Number of Mistakes |
1st Decision |
2nd Decision |
3rd Decision |
4th Decision |
5th Decision |
P |
|
0 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
? |
|
1 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
? |
|
1 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
? |
|
1 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
? |
|
1 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
? |
|
1 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
? |
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