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Refer to the following payoff table (values are profit):
State of Nature | ||
Alternative | S1 | S2 |
A1 | 75 | −40 |
A2 | 0 | 100 |
Prior Probability | 0.6 | 0.4 |
What is the expected payoff of the decision strategy (i.e. using the EMV/EP criterion)?
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Solved in 4 steps
- Translate the following monetary payoffs into utilities for a decision maker whose utility function is described by an exponential function with R = 250: –$200, –$100, $0, $100, $200, $300, $400, $500.Consider the following payoff table that represents the profits earned for each alternative (A, B, and C) under the states of nature S1, S2, and S3. Using the Laplace criterion, what would be the highest expected payoff? S1 S2 S3 A $100 145 120 B $75 125 110 C $95 85 60The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature: State of Nature Decision Alternative S1 S2 S3 d1 200 150 150 d2 250 150 100 The probabilities for the states of nature are P(s1) = 0.55, P(s2) = 0.25, and P(s3) = 0.2. (a) What is the optimal decision strategy if perfect information were available? S1 : S2 : S3 : (b) What is the expected value for the decision strategy developed in part (a)? If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (c) Using the expected value approach, what is the recommended decision without perfect information? What is its expected value? If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (d) What is the expected value of perfect information? If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
- When using present worth to evaluate the attractiveness of a single investment alternative, what value is the calculated PW compared to? a. 0.0b. MARR c. 1.0 d. WACC.On the basis of the utility formula below, which investment would you select if you were risk averse with A = 4? Investment Expected return E(r) Standard deviation σ 1 0.12 0.30 2 0.15 0.50 3 0.21 0.16 4 0.24 0.21What ROI will equate the PV of Inflows and the PV of outflows? a. Internal rate of return (IRR) b. Cost of capital rate c. The desired rate of return d. The minimum rate of return.
- The following results were obtained in a decision problem where payoffs are profits: EVSI EVwithPI 612 4300 If the efficiency of sample information is 30%, what is the maximum expected monetary value? Maximum EMV =dentify the decision rule that best fits each of the following descriptions. Dollar profit Optimistic percentage return Return that assumes reinvestment at WACC Options; MIRR IRR PISupposing the return from an investment has the following probability distribution Return Probability R (%) 8 0.2 10 0.2 12 0.5 14 0.1 Required: What is the expected return of the investment? What is the risk as measured by the standard deviation of expected returns?
- Your firm is considering what has been estimated to be a positive NPV project (NPV > 0). What can you say or infer about the project's payback period, discounted payback method, IRR, profitability index, and accounting rate of return?Compare and contrast the risk versus expected rate of return tradeoff, the security market line, and determination of beta on this basis. Include explanation of all the constituents, namely security market line, risk measure, expected rate of return, risk-free rate of return, and market rate of return. Include hypothetical examples for better clarity. What is the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and its significance?Compare and contrast the risk versus expected rate of return tradeoff, the security market line, and determination of beta on this basis. Include explanation of all the constituents, namely security market line, risk measure, expected rate of return, risk-free rate of return, and market rate of return. Include hypothetical examples for better clarity. What is the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and its significance? Can you think of two hypothetical examples for better clarity?