Calculate: a. Expected value of perfect information b. Minimax regret value
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Calculate:
a. Expected value of perfect information
b. Minimax regret value
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- The Ace Steel Mill estimates the demand for steel in millions of tons per year as follows:Millions of Tons Probability10 .1012 .2514 .3016 .2018 .15a. If capacity is set at 18 million tons, how much of a capacity cushion is there?b. What is the probability of idle capacity, and what is the average utilization of the plant at 18 million tons of capacity?c. If it costs $8 million per million tons of lost business and $80 million to build a million tons of capacity, how much capacity should be built to minimize total costs?A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small,medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average,or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.25, 0.40,and 0.35, respectively.A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net pres-ent value of just $18,000 if demand is low. If demand isaverage, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000; it canbe increased to medium size to earn a net present value of$60,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn$60,000 or to large size to earn $125,000.A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated$25,000 if demand is low and earn $140,000 if demand isaverage. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility isexpected to earn a net present value of $150,000; it can beexpanded to a large size for a net payoff of $145,000.If a large facility is built and demand is high, earningsare expected to be $220,000. If demand is average for thelarge facility, the…A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium or large stamping plant. A consultant’s report indicates a 0.20 probability that demand will be low and 0.80 that demand will be high. If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the Net Present Value (NPV) willbe $42M. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the NPV of $42M orexpand greatly for a Net Present Value of $48M. The firm could build a medium size facility as a hedge: if demand turns out to be low, its NPV is estimated at $22M; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothing and realize a NPV of $46M, or could expand and realize a NPV of $50M. If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the NPV will be ($20M), whereas high demand will result in a NPV of $72M. Compute the EVPI *
- Given is a decision payoff table and a Sub Decision Payoff Table. Use Minimax Regret as an evaluation criterion to evaluate alternatives. Future Demand Alternatives Low Moderate High Small Facility 31 18 15 Medium Facility 20 35 21 Large Facility -10 31 35 Alternatives Worst Regrets Small Facility ? Medium Facility ? Large Facility ? a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is ( ) b) The worst regrets for alternative Medium Facility is ( ) c) The worst regrets for alternative Large Facility is ( ) d) The best course of action or decision by using Minimax Regret is to select ( ) facilityIf the values (Revenue - Cost) for the option for a retail store to move to a new location associated with the events strong growth and weak growth are $ 200000 and $100000 respectively, calculate the expected value for the option to move to a new location. The probability of strong growth = 55%.1. Kirsten is trying to decide where to go for her well-earned vacation. She would like to camp, but if the weather is bad, she will have to go to a motel. Given the costs and probabilities of bad weather given below, which destination should she choose? Camping cost Motel cost Probability of bad weather Nevada $21.2 $80.9 0.2 Oregon $15.9 $84.6 0.4 California $30 $95 0.1 a. California, because its EMV = $33.14 b. Nevada, because its EMV = $33.14 c. California, because its EMV = $36.5 d. Any of the 3 choices. e. Oregon, because its EMV = $43.38 f. Nevada, because its EMV = $43.38 g. None of the 3 choices. h. Oregon, because its EMV is $36.50.
- Dave Escalona, a DLSL Computer Engineering graduate, is considering the possibility of opening a small computer shop at SM City Lipa, a few blocks from the school. His options are to open a small shop, a medium-sized shop or no shop at all. The market for the computer shop can be good, average or bad. The probabilities for these possibilities are 0.2 for good market, 0.5 for average market and 0.3 for bad market. The net profit or loss for the medium-sized or small shop for the various market conditions are given in the table below. Building no shop also yields no loss and no gain. What do you recommend? Good Market Average Market Bad Market Alternatives P P P Small shop 75,000 25,000 -40,000 Medium-sized shop 100,000 35,000 -60,000 No shop 0 0 0 Probabilities 0.2 0.5 0.3APC industries has been experiencing significant growth and has been having difficulty meeting customer demands recently. They are considering three options to address this issue. They can move to a larger facility, add a second shift or use a subcontractor to assist in production. The annual payoff of each option depends on if the current market continues to expand hold s steady or declines. The expected payoff for each combination is shown in the table below Option Expand Steady Decline Move to larger facility 250,000 125,000 -90,000 Add a second shift 175,000 80,000 -45,000 Subcontract 90,000 15,000 -10,000 Which option should APC choose with the Hurwicz criterion with α = 0.5? Using a minimax regret approach, what alternative should she choose? After reading about economic predictions, APC has assigned the probability that the market will be expanded, or be steady or be weak at 20%, 50%, and 30 %. Using expected monetary values, what option should be chosen, and what…A well-known plastic mould and die manufacturer in Toronto intends to expand internationally in anticipation of strong demand and expansion in the plastic die manufacturing sector. use the table beneath. Using the Maximax, Maximin, and equally likely conditions, assist the business in making the best option in an unclear situation. 0.5 for a highly favourable condition, 0.2 for an average demand, and 0.3 for an unfavourable state are the probabilities linked with the states of nature.a) Choose the course of action that will give Andrew the highest predicted monetary value (EMV).b) Determine the anticipated value of perfect information (EVPI).
- A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium, or large stamping plant. A consultant’sreport indicates a .20 probability that demand will be low and an .80 probability that demand willbe high.If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the net present value will be$42 million. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the net present value of $42 million or expand greatly for a net present value of $48 million.The firm could build a medium-size facility as a hedge: If demand turns out to be low, its netpresent value is estimated at $22 million; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothingand realize a net present value of $46 million, or it could expand and realize a net present value of$50 million.If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the net present value will be – $20 million,whereas high demand will result in a net present value of $72 million.a. Analyze this problem using a decision…The Hard to Beat Bakery is deciding whether to buy or repair an existing oven thatthey have been using for over 8 years. If they elect to repair, it will cost the entity$950,000 and either of two outcomes is likely: 1. A 20% probability it will perform okay and generate revenues of$10,000,000, or 2. An 80% chance that it will be partially restored and generate revenue of$2,000,000. If on the other hand however, they purchase a new oven, they can either buy animported oven for $3,500,000 or they can buy a locally made one for $2,200,000.If the elect to purchase the imported oven, production will earn them revenues of$15,550,000, but if they buy the locally made oven, there is a 70% likelihood thatit perform as expected and generate revenues of $12,000,000; and a 30% chancethat it will not and generate revenues of $6,000,000. Required: 1. Draw a decision tree of this problem and determine the expected value.2. Advise the management of the Bakery on how to proceed.3. Briefly discuss the…Server Farm Inc. (SFI) needs to upgrade its servercomputers. Company management has identified thefollowing two options: (1) shift to a Windows‐basedplatform from its current Unix‐based platform, or(2) stick with a Unix‐based platform. It is standardpractice at SFI to use a triangular distribution to modeluncertain costs.Along these lines, the company estimates that if itmigrates to Windows, the new server hardware couldcost as little as $100,000 or as much as $200,000. Thetechnical group’s best estimate is that the hardwareMantel_c04.indd 138 9/6/2016 4:52:35 PMcosts will be $125,000 if the Window’s option is pursued. Likewise, the company’s best guess regarding thecost to upgrade and convert its software to Windows is$300,000 with a range of $275,000 to $500,000.Finally, if the company converts to Windows, employeetraining costs are estimated to range between $9,000and $15,000, with the best guess being $10,000. If thecompany sticks with Unix, the new server hardwarewill most likely…