Create a time series plot. b) Develop a six period moving average. What is the forecast for month 30? c) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with a smoothing constant of 0.65. What is the forecast for month 30?
Q: a) What is the value of your forecast? The value of the forecast is patients (round your response to…
A: Forecasting is a technique used to predict future outcomes on the basis of past data. In businesses…
Q: The following table shows the number of televisions sold over the last ten years at a local…
A: Remember formulas: X bar = ∑X / n Y bar = ∑ Y/ n b =( ∑ X*Y) - n× X bar × Y bar) / (∑X^2-n× (X…
Q: A cause -and-effect diagram is used to identify the possible causes of defects. Draw a Cause and…
A: Cause and effect diagram aka fishbone diagram aka Ishikawa diagrams are causal diagrams created by…
Q: Explain the key aspects of operation management decision making
A: According to the business definition, operations management is the design, execution, and control of…
Q: What is the linear trend forecast for September? Month Month Sales Feb 1 19 Mar 2 18 Apr…
A: Linear trend equation is the simplest form of regression analysis. It is used to predict the next…
Q: For a population, N = 14,000, μ = 110, and o 19. Find the z value for x = 128.60 for n = 36. Round…
A: Given data: µ = 110 σ = 19 X¯ = 128.60 n = 36 N = 14,000
Q: IN THE MID-1960S, WALT DISNEY’S DREAM was to build a family resort destination like no other. The…
A: Forecasting is a technique to predict future value. It is useful to predict future demand, sales, or…
Q: Explain Three (3) approaches that a buyer could take to obtain reliable information about suppliers’…
A: The functioning and financial health of company are critically impacted by the financial stability…
Q: Discuss the importance of following a well-integrated change control process on IT projects. What…
A: A formal approach is called "Change Control." It is configured to allow project teams to change the…
Q: Arnold Tofu owns and operates a chain of 12 vegetable protein “hamburger” restaurants in northern…
A: An estimate of the line that depicts the actual but unidentified linear connection between the two…
Q: Janson's Department Store in Stark, Ohio, maintains a successful catalog sales department in which…
A:
Q: What types of scheduling decisions are management likely to encounter in the following operations?…
A: The purpose of scheduling is to meet both efficiency and customer service objectives by ensuring…
Q: 7- A sourcing strategy for items in the bottleneck quadrant can be to a-adjust specifications to…
A: Ans) 7) A sourcing strategy for items in the bottleneck quadrant can be to 1) increasing…
Q: Explain how waiting lines can develop even when the service time is a constant.
A: The waiting line is the length of time that a customer has to wait before they are served. The…
Q: Find the least expensive route from I to L and state its cost 120 K 120 150 40 P 30 100 70 30/ N 50…
A: The shortest route method is an optimization technique of network models. Based on the input and…
Q: (1) Find an optimal assignment of trucks to routes to minimize the total cost (using the Hungarian…
A: The Assignment Problem is a problem in the field of Operations Management which is defined as…
Q: Maximum Flow
A: To find out the number of vehicles that can move from school to park can be calculated using the…
Q: Which term describes a product produced as part of a project? Work package Deliverable…
A: All outputs, physical or intangible that were already presented as part of something like a…
Q: Part 2 Calculation Questions As assistant manager of a soccer specialty store you have been asked to…
A: Given data: Average weekly demand (d) = 18 pairs/week Standard Deviation of demand = 6 pairs Lead…
Q: 4. AlwaysRain Irrigation, Inc. would like to determine capacity requirements for the next four…
A: Formulas to be used: % of capacity used=Total demand production capacity per 1000 units per…
Q: To meet holiday demand, Alex's Pie Shop requires a production line that is capable of producing 50…
A: Cycle time is the proportion between total available time and total demand. Considering the given…
Q: What upgrades could be made to your products or services to make it better? Explain your answer.
A: The process of making significant product changes that either attract new customers or enhance the…
Q: a) Draw a network diagram. b) List all the paths and their durations c) Find the critical path. d)…
A: Here, I have been given the activity table, for each activity, I have been given the immediate…
Q: Chiltern Farms “[T]he beautiful valley of Vyeboom nestled between the majestic Franschhoek Mountains…
A: Supply Chain Management relates to the distribution network that is laid out to move or dispatch…
Q: Zuke's Nukes is a retailer of organic microwavable entrees. They purchase frozen meals in batches…
A: The entire number of units produced during a production run is, in fact, referred to as the batch…
Q: In no less than 200 words, describe the connection between “quality” and “strategy.”
A: The term quality defines good or bad, success or failure, and right or wrong of the resultant…
Q: You are in the process of deciding the optimal order quantity of shampoo packs for a hotel. The…
A: Ans) First find EOQ and its cost:
Q: A project is scheduled to complete in six months duration. There are two activities in the project.…
A: Given data is
Q: A shoe store orders shoes from the manufacturer and sells them at a mall. Storing shoes at the store…
A: Given data: Let the number of pairs of shoes = X Holding cost = $8 per shoe pair Ordering cost =…
Q: task duration (hours) predecesor 1 predecesor 2 predecesor 3 A 4 B 5 C 3 A D 3 A…
A: Formulae used: Cycle Time = Operation time/dayoutput /day Theoretical minimum number of…
Q: GRAPH METHOD Graph-Based Method: Example Lets consider the following relationship chart and using…
A: Graph based method is construction type layout method which is used with an adjency based objective…
Q: Nighthawk Airlines measured their numbers of lost bags in one month and found that they had lost 50…
A: Six Sigma is a quality management strategy that was developed by Motorola in the mid-1980s. It was…
Q: Under the operations analysis, how do you know how to assign responsibilities?
A: Operational analysis refers to the inspection or checking of the current state of performance for…
Q: i. Using trend projection, develop a formula to predict sales for years 11 and 12. You have to show…
A: The linear trend equation is a formula used to calculate the slope and intercept of a linear trend y…
Q: What is the difference between process versus product layout? Where is each best?
A: Here, I would establish the difference between process layout and product layout with examples,…
Q: sign capacity and effective capacity. Provid On important? enter has the physical ability to handle…
A: A system's capacity is its ability to produce items or provide services within a certain time frame.…
Q: Dunstreet's Department Store would like to develop an inventory ordering policy with a 99 percent…
A: The quantity of inventory a company should always retain to run most successfully is the optimal…
Q: Based on the x-chart, is one or more samples beyond the control limits? Yes No
A: Control limits for x-bar chart: UCL = 4.86LCL = 4.52 Control limits for R chart: UCL = 1.344LCL =…
Q: a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = number). miles (round your response to…
A: Moving averages are a type of average that is computed by taking the average of a set of…
Q: If he uses the earliest due date first priority rule to schedule these jobs, what will be the…
A: Scheduling is the process of arranging production activities in order to complete the manufacturing…
Q: The wheat harvesting season in the American Midwest is short, and farmers deliver their truckloads…
A: From the given question description, the following information is extracted. Arrival rate λ = 31…
Q: A manufacturer can produce an item for $139/unit with a fixed cost of $56,034. The alternative is to…
A: The break-even point is the point at which the total cost of production equals the total revenue…
Q: What is the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast for September if we use alpha smoothing constant…
A: Simple exponential Smoothing is time series forecasting method. It is calculated with following…
Q: (d) Management realized that the optimal product mix, taking setup costs into account, might be…
A: The decision variables are already given. Objective function: Max…
Q: (a) Which constraints are binding? (b) Which constraints are non-binding? (c) What is the increase…
A: Linear programming is a mathematical technique that is also used in operations management…
Q: Based on the following BPMN diagram: List the main elements in the diagram. Illustrate the model…
A: BPMN or business process modeling and notation is a concept where certain processes or systems are…
Q: The Chattanooga Furniture store gets an average of 72 customers per shift. Marilyn Helms, the…
A: Arrival Rate = 72 customers per shift Cost of waiting = $1 min per customer Cost of salesperson per…
Q: Using the following, forecast the sales for the months up to January the following year:- A simple…
A: The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of the accuracy of forecasts. It measures how far off…
Q: e efficient anc e labor into pa first-class wo ommon purpo
A: The retailer of fast food services worldwide is McDonald's. Every day, the corporation serves more…
Q: What are the two primary questions a client will ask you when beginning a project? Why is it hard to…
A: The beginning or initiation of the project is the first step when the project gets started. During…
#3) Calls to a college emergency hotline for the past 29 months are as follows:
|
Month |
Calls |
Month |
Calls |
|
1 |
45 |
16 |
50 |
|
2 |
30 |
17 |
50 |
|
3 |
20 |
18 |
35 |
|
4 |
35 |
19 |
30 |
|
5 |
40 |
20 |
55 |
|
6 |
30 |
21 |
70 |
|
7 |
15 |
22 |
45 |
|
8 |
25 |
23 |
35 |
|
9 |
30 |
24 |
37 |
|
10 |
15 |
25 |
46 |
|
11 |
10 |
26 |
17 |
|
12 |
35 |
27 |
33 |
|
13 |
50 |
28 |
40 |
|
14 |
30 |
29 |
60 |
|
15 |
20 |
|
|
a) Create a time series plot.
b) Develop a six period moving average. What is the
c) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with a smoothing constant of 0.65. What is the forecast for month 30?
d) Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each model in problems b, and c. Which model is the better predictor?
e) Actual calls during month 30 were 55. Which model is the better predictors? Explain.
f) Excel file
Step by step
Solved in 4 steps with 5 images
- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
- Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the lastweek were as follows: 93, 94, 93, 95, 96, 88, 90 (yesterday).a) Forecast the high temperature today, using a 3-day movingaverage.b) Forecast the high temperature today, using a 2-day movingaverage.c) Calculate the mean absolute deviation based on a 2-daymoving average.d) Compute the mean squared error for the 2-day movingaverage.e) Calculate the mean absolute percent error for the 2-daymoving average.Forecasting Forecasting is important relative to capacity requirements planning. What are some of the merits of using judgment methods (i.e., qualitative data) in contrast to quantitative forecasting methods. Which methods are considered to be superior or more accurate, and in what forecast situations would require judgment methods? In what situations would require a quantitative approach to forecasting?a. Compute a three-week moving average forecast for the arrival of medical clinic patients in week 4. The numbers of arrivals for the past 3 weeks were as follows: Week Patient Arrivals1 4002 3803 411 b. If the actual number of patient arrivals in week 4 is 415, what is the forecast error for week 4?c. What is the forecast for week 5?
- 1 The demand for automobiles at Crescent Auto Dealers for the past 8 weeks is as follows. Week Auto Demand Weights1 9 0.12 11 0.33 8 0.64 125 106 137 78 12a Develop a 3-week moving average forecast for Weeks 4 through 9b Develop a 3-week weighted average forecast…Give three example of unethical conduct involving forecasting and the ethical principle each violates.a. What do we mean by forecast?b. Can a forecast have an error? Justify your answer.
