Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Winter Park Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table: For example, the probability of getting a batch of tests that are 1% defective from Winter Park Technology is .70. Because Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order, this would mean that there is a .70 probability of getting 100 defective tests out of the 10,000 tests if Winter Park Technology is used to fill the order. A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0.50. Although the quality of the test sets of the second supplier, Dayton Enterprises, is lower, it will sell an order of 10,000 test sets for $37 less than Winter Park. a) Develop a Decision Tree b) Which supplier should Kellog use? Percent Defective Probability for Winter Park Technology Probability for Dayton Enterprises 1 0.70 0.30 3 0.20 0.30 5 0.10 0.40

Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Winter Park Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table: For example, the probability of getting a batch of tests that are 1% defective from Winter Park Technology is .70. Because Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order, this would mean that there is a .70 probability of getting 100 defective tests out of the 10,000 tests if Winter Park Technology is used to fill the order. A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0.50. Although the quality of the test sets of the second supplier, Dayton Enterprises, is lower, it will sell an order of 10,000 test sets for $37 less than Winter Park. a) Develop a Decision Tree b) Which supplier should Kellog use? Percent Defective Probability for Winter Park Technology Probability for Dayton Enterprises 1 0.70 0.30 3 0.20 0.30 5 0.10 0.40

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 40P

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It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to produce a 1000-pound batch of a drug. The average yield from a batch is unknown but the best case is 90% yield (that is, 900 pounds of good drug will be produced), the most likely case is 85% yield, and the worst case is 70% yield. The annual demand for the drug is unknown, with the best case being 20,000 pounds, the most likely case 17,500 pounds, and the worst case 10,000 pounds. The drug sells for 125 per pound and leftover amounts of the drug can be sold for 30 per pound. To maximize annual expected profit, how many batches of the drug should the company produce? You can assume that it will produce the batches only once, before demand for the drug is known.
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Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Winter Park Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table: For example, the probability of getting a batch of tests that are 1% defective from Winter Park Technology is .70. Because Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order, this would mean that there is a .70 probability of getting 100 defective tests out of the 10,000 tests if Winter Park Technology is used to fill the order. A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0.50. Although the quality of the test sets of the second supplier, Dayton Enterprises, is lower, it will sell an order of 10,000 test sets for $37 less than Winter Park. a) Develop a decision tree. b) Which supplier should Kellogg use?
for managing its data processing operation: continuing with its own staff, hiring an outside vendor to do the managing (referred to as outsourcing), or using a combination of its own staff and an outside vendor. The cost of the operation depends on future demand. The annual cost of each option (in thousands) depends on demand as follows. DEMAND STAFFING OPTIONS HIGH MEDIUM LOW Own Staff 650 650 600 Outside Vendor 900 600 300 Combination 800 650 500 Based on decision analysis under uncertainty, determine the best decision each of the model. Then compare all the model decision to make it overall conclusion.
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I need a detailed explanation on how to solve this problem: A bagel shop buys each bagel for $0.08 and sells each bagel for $0.35. Leftover bagels at the end of the day are purchased by a local soup kitchen for $0.03 per bagel. The shop’s owner has observed for the daily demand, Q, the following probabilities, f(Q): Q 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 f(Q) 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.25 0.15 0.10 0.05 - What is the optimal daily order in multiples of 5 (include the model name and formula)? - If the daily demand is normally distributed (the mean and variance can be obtained from the table above), then what is the optimal daily order?
Wheels Distributors sells three types of tires to the commercial market. Type A. Type B and Type C. The anticipated payoffs are as follows for the three types of tires. Light Demand Moderate Demand Heavy Demand Probability 0.25 0.45 0.3 Tire Type A $325,000 $190,000 $170,000 B $300,000 $420,000 $400,000 C -$400,000 $240,000 $800,000 Construct a decision tree to help the management of Wheel Distributor make the appropriate decisions. This tree MUST be constructed in logical order with labels and net payoffs. Given the probabilities for the three types of tires and the expected monetary values, what decision should be made and what is that optimal expected value? What is the most should the firm be willing to pay to obtain further (perfect) information (EVPI) concerning the demand for the tires? 4. What decision should the firm…
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Palmer Jam Company is a small manufacturer of several different jam products. One product is an organic jam that has no preservatives, sold to retail outlets. Susan Palmer must decide how many cases of jam to manufacture each month. The probability that demand will be 7 cases is 0.10, for 8 cases it is 0.25, for 9 cases it is 0.45, and for 10 cases it is 0.20. The cost of every case is $50, and the price Susan gets for each case is $90. Unfortunately, any cases not sold by the end of the month are of no value as a result of spoilage. Based on the given information, Susan's conditional profits table for jam is: Demand 7 cases 8 cases 9 cases 10 cases Produce p=0.10 p=0.25 p=0.45 p=0.20 7 cases enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here 8 cases enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here…
Palmer Jam Company is a small manufacturer of several different jam products. One product is an organic jam that has no preservatives, sold to retail outlets. Susan Palmer must decide how many cases of jam to manufacture each month. The probability that demand will be 7 cases is 0.10, for 8 cases it is 0.25, for 9 cases it is 0.45, and for 10 cases it is 0.20. The cost of every case is $50, and the price Susan gets for each case is $90. Unfortunately, any cases not sold by the end of the month are of no value as a result of spoilage. Based on the given information, Susan's conditional profits table for jam is: Demand 7 cases 8 cases 9 cases 10 cases Produce p=0.10 p=0.25 p=0.45 p=0.20 7 cases enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here 8 cases enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here…