Determine the various criterion from which the final decision has to be made. If the farmer wishes to plant only one crop, decide which will be his choice using the following criterion •Maximax criterion •Maximin criterion •Hurwicz criterion •Laplace criterion

Determine the various criterion from which the final decision has to be made. If the farmer wishes to plant only one crop, decide which will be his choice using the following criterion •Maximax criterion •Maximin criterion •Hurwicz criterion •Laplace criterion

Name: PROBLEM SOLVING (DECISION THEORY) Example: A farmer wants to decide wh
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Description: PROBLEM SOLVING (DECISION THEORY) Example: A farmer wants to decide which of the three crops he should plant on his 100 Acre farm. The profit from each is dependent on the rainfall during the growing seasons. The farmer has categorized the amount of

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter8: Evolutionary Solver: An Alternative Optimization Procedure

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 35P

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This problem is based on Motorolas online method for choosing suppliers. Suppose Motorola solicits bids from five suppliers for eight products. The list price for each product and the quantity of each product that Motorola needs to purchase during the next year are listed in the file P06_93.xlsx. Each supplier has submitted the percentage discount it will offer on each product. These percentages are also listed in the file. For example, supplier 1 offers a 7% discount on product 1 and a 30% discount on product 2. The following considerations also apply: There is an administrative cost of 5000 associated with setting up a suppliers account. For example, if Motorola uses three suppliers, it incurs an administrative cost of 15,000. To ensure reliability, no supplier can supply more than 80% of Motorolas demand for any product. A supplier must supply an integer amount of each product it supplies. Develop a linear integer model to help Motorola minimize the sum of its purchase and administrative costs.
The eTech Company is a fairly recent entry in the electronic device area. The company competes with Apple. Samsung, and other well-known companies in the manufacturing and sales of personal handheld devices. Although eTech recognizes that it is a niche player and will likely remain so in the foreseeable future, it is trying to increase its current small market share in this huge competitive market. Jim Simons, VP of Production, and Catherine Dolans, VP of Marketing, have been discussing the possible addition of a new product to the companys current (rather limited) product line. The tentative name for this new product is ePlayerX. Jim and Catherine agree that the ePlayerX, which will feature a sleeker design and more memory, is necessary to compete successfully with the big boys, but they are also worried that the ePlayerX could cannibalize sales of their existing productsand that it could even detract from their bottom line. They must eventually decide how much to spend to develop and manufacture the ePlayerX and how aggressively to market it. Depending on these decisions, they must forecast demand for the ePlayerX, as well as sales for their existing products. They also realize that Apple. Samsung, and the other big players are not standing still. These competitors could introduce their own new products, which could have very negative effects on demand for the ePlayerX. The expected timeline for the ePlayerX is that development will take no more than a year to complete and that the product will be introduced in the market a year from now. Jim and Catherine are aware that there are lots of decisions to make and lots of uncertainties involved, but they need to start somewhere. To this end. Jim and Catherine have decided to base their decisions on a planning horizon of four years, including the development year. They realize that the personal handheld device market is very fluid, with updates to existing products occurring almost continuously. However, they believe they can include such considerations into their cost, revenue, and demand estimates, and that a four-year planning horizon makes sense. In addition, they have identified the following problem parameters. (In this first pass, all distinctions are binary: low-end or high-end, small-effect or large-effect, and so on.) In the absence of cannibalization, the sales of existing eTech products are expected to produce year I net revenues of 10 million, and the forecast of the annual increase in net revenues is 2%. The ePIayerX will be developed as either a low-end or a high-end product, with corresponding fixed development costs (1.5 million or 2.5 million), variable manufacturing costs ( 100 or 200). and selling prices (150 or 300). The fixed development cost is incurred now, at the beginning of year I, and the variable cost and selling price are assumed to remain constant throughout the planning horizon. The new product will be marketed either mildly aggressively or very aggressively, with corresponding costs. The costs of a mildly aggressive marketing campaign are 1.5 million in year 1 and 0.5 million annually in years 2 to 4. For a very aggressive campaign, these costs increase to 3.5 million and 1.5 million, respectively. (These marketing costs are not part of the variable cost mentioned in the previous bullet; they are separate.) Depending on whether the ePlayerX is a low-end or high-end produce the level of the ePlayerXs cannibalization rate of existing eTech products will be either low (10%) or high (20%). Each cannibalization rate affects only sales of existing products in years 2 to 4, not year I sales. For example, if the cannibalization rate is 10%, then sales of existing products in each of years 2 to 4 will be 10% below their projected values without cannibalization. A base case forecast of demand for the ePlayerX is that in its first year on the market, year 2, demand will be for 100,000 units, and then demand will increase by 5% annually in years 3 and 4. This base forecast is based on a low-end version of the ePlayerX and mildly aggressive marketing. It will be adjusted for a high-end will product, aggressive marketing, and competitor behavior. The adjustments with no competing product appear in Table 2.3. The adjustments with a competing product appear in Table 2.4. Each adjustment is to demand for the ePlayerX in each of years 2 to 4. For example, if the adjustment is 10%, then demand in each of years 2 to 4 will be 10% lower than it would have been in the base case. Demand and units sold are the samethat is, eTech will produce exactly what its customers demand so that no inventory or backorders will occur. Table 2.3 Demand Adjustments When No Competing Product Is Introduced Table 2.4 Demand Adjustments When a Competing Product Is Introduced Because Jim and Catherine are approaching the day when they will be sharing their plans with other company executives, they have asked you to prepare an Excel spreadsheet model that will answer the many what-if questions they expect to be asked. Specifically, they have asked you to do the following: You should enter all of the given data in an inputs section with clear labeling and appropriate number formatting. If you believe that any explanations are required, you can enter them in text boxes or cell comments. In this section and in the rest of the model, all monetary values (other than the variable cost and the selling price) should be expressed in millions of dollars, and all demands for the ePlayerX should be expressed in thousands of units. You should have a scenario section that contains a 0/1 variable for each of the binary options discussed here. For example, one of these should be 0 if the low-end product is chosen and it should be 1 if the high-end product is chosen. You should have a parameters section that contains the values of the various parameters listed in the case, depending on the values of the 0/1 variables in the previous bullet For example, the fixed development cost will be 1.5 million or 2.5 million depending on whether the 0/1 variable in the previous bullet is 0 or 1, and this can be calculated with a simple IF formula. You can decide how to implement the IF logic for the various parameters. You should have a cash flows section that calculates the annual cash flows for the four-year period. These cash flows include the net revenues from existing products, the marketing costs for ePlayerX, and the net revenues for sales of ePlayerX (To calculate these latter values, it will help to have a row for annual units sold of ePlayerX.) The cash flows should also include depreciation on the fixed development cost, calculated on a straight-line four-year basis (that is. 25% of the cost in each of the four years). Then, these annual revenues/costs should be summed for each year to get net cash flow before taxes, taxes should be calculated using a 32% tax rate, and taxes should be subtracted and depreciation should be added back in to get net cash flows after taxes. (The point is that depreciation is first subtracted, because it is not taxed, but then it is added back in after taxes have been calculated.) You should calculate the company's NPV for the four-year horizon using a discount rate of 10%. You can assume that the fixed development cost is incurred now. so that it is not discounted, and that all other costs and revenues are incurred at the ends of the respective years. You should accompany all of this with a line chart with three series: annual net revenues from existing products; annual marketing costs for ePlayerX; and annual net revenues from sales of ePlayerX. Once all of this is completed. Jim and Catherine will have a powerful tool for presentation purposes. By adjusting the 0/1 scenario variables, their audience will be able to see immediately, both numerically and graphically, the financial consequences of various scenarios.
Seas Beginning sells clothing by mail order. An important question is when to strike a customer from the companys mailing list. At present, the company strikes a customer from its mailing list if a customer fails to order from six consecutive catalogs. The company wants to know whether striking a customer from its list after a customer fails to order from four consecutive catalogs results in a higher profit per customer. The following data are available: If a customer placed an order the last time she received a catalog, then there is a 20% chance she will order from the next catalog. If a customer last placed an order one catalog ago, there is a 16% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. If a customer last placed an order two catalogs ago, there is a 12% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. If a customer last placed an order three catalogs ago, there is an 8% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. If a customer last placed an order four catalogs ago, there is a 4% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. If a customer last placed an order five catalogs ago, there is a 2% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. It costs 2 to send a catalog, and the average profit per order is 30. Assume a customer has just placed an order. To maximize expected profit per customer, would Seas Beginning make more money canceling such a customer after six nonorders or four nonorders?
Make sure to identify and define the decision variables, and formulate the objective function and constraints for each problem. You may use Excel to solve the mathematical problems. 1. Sunchem, a manufacturer of printing inks, has five manufacturing plants worldwide. Their locations and capacities are shown in Table 1 along with the cost of producing 1 ton of ink at each facility. The major markets for the inks are North America, Europe, Japan, South America, and the rest of Asia. Demand at each market is shown in Table 1. Transportation costs from each plant to each market in U.S. dollars are shown in Table 1. Management must come up with a production plan for the next year. a. If no plant can run below 50 percent capacity, how much should each plant produce and which markets should each plant supply? b. If there are no limits on the minimum amount produced in a plant, how much should each plant produce?
In the problem on excel : 1.What are the decision variables 2.What is the objective functions 3. What are the constraints and explain A used t company, owned by Musa in Ottawa sells 7 different brands covering 3 different products. These are 4 Brands of Cars: Toyota, Honda, Chevrolet and BMW; 2 brands of Motorcycles: Suzuki and Yamaha, and 1 brand of Sailboats: Amel. Musa knows that his sales floor which he will display his products is 70,000 square feet, and that a Car takes 60 square feet of space, a motorcycle takes 20 square feet of space, and a sailboat takes 800 square feet of space. The profit that can be made for selling each of 7 different items is listed below: ITem Profit per unit Car - Toyota $2800 Car - Honda $3900 Car - Chevrolet $2,100 Car - BMW $5000 Motorcycle - Suzuki $1,000 Motorcycle - Yamaha $2,250 Sailboat - Amel $9,500 The transportation company is trying to determine how many of each item to order to maximize profit, given the following restrictions: 1.…
An investor is considering investing in stocks, real estate, or bonds economic conditions. Suppose that the probabilities for good, stable and poor conditions are 0.2, 0.4 and … (figure it out), respectively. Table 1 shows the payoff returns for the investor’s decision situation. Table 1: Investment returns Economic Conditions Investment Good Stable Poor Stocks R5 000 R7 000 R3 000 Real estate -R2 000 R10 000 R6 000 Bonds R4 000 R4 000 R4 000 Assuming the probabilities of the occurrence of the state of nature are unknown, what will be the best investment alternative; a) If the decision maker is pessimistic about the future state, (3) b) If the decision maker strikes a compromise between the maximin and maximax, assuming the coefficient of pessimism is 0.2. (4) c) If the decision is based on opportunistic loss. (6) d) If we use the equally likelihood criterion
An investment advisor at RMC Financial Services wants to develop a model that can be used to allocate investment funds among four alternatives: stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and cash. For the coming investment period, the company developed estimates of the annual rate of return and the associated risk for each alternative. Risk is measured between 0 and 1, with higher risk value denoting more volatility and thus more uncertainty. The estimated rate of return for stocks is 10%, for bonds 3%, for mutual funds 4%, and cash 1%. The risk index for the stocks, bonds, and mutual funds investment is estimated as 0.8, 0.2, and 0.3, respectively. Because cash is held in money market funds, the annual return is lower, but it carries essentially no risk (i.e., risk index is zero for cash investment). The objective is to determine the portion of funds allocated to each investment alternatives in order to maximize the total annual return for the portfolio subject to the risk level the client is…
Photo attached. A decision tree in excel has to be used to solve this problem.
In the problem on excel : 1.What are the decision variables 2.What is the objective functions 3. What are the 12 constraints and explain You won $750,000 from a lottery and, you have decided to come up with a list of possible investments that you will invest, all of the $750,000 that you have won. The expected return of each of the 6 possible investments that you are considering investing in,and their Expected Rate of Return over the next year are in the table below. Investment Expected Rate of return Amazon Inc (USA Shares) 13.5% Royal Bank of Canada (Canadian Shares) 7.4% Nike Inc (USA Shares) 10.0% Telus Corporation (Canadian Shares) 6.1% Snap Inc (USA Shares) 3.0% Nestle SA (Switzerland Shares) 4.8% it is important to have a diversified portfolio, and therefore have come up with the following guidelines on how to invest your money: 1.The total invested in USA Shares should be at least 10% but no more then 45% of the total…
An automobile manufacturer wants to award contracts for the supply of four different fuel injection system components. Four contracts have submitted bids on the components; the Table below summarizes the prices bid per unit. Where no entry is made, the contractor submitted no bid. Component Contractor 1 2 3 4 1 $25 - $30 $40 2 $28 $80 $28 - 3 - $75 $33 - 4 $30 $82 - $42 Demand (units) 15,000 30,000 10,000 20,000 The demand for a component does not have to be supplied completely by one contractor. In fact, certain contractors have indicated maximum quantities that can be supplied at the bid price. Contractor 1 can supply no more than 18,000 of item 4, contractor 2 no more than 3,000 of item 1, contractor 4 no more than 15,000 units of item 2 and no more than 5,000 of item 4. There is no provision that awards must go to the low bidder. The automobile manufacturer wants to determine how many units of each…
. Solve each of these problems by computer and obtain the optimal values of the decision variablesand the objective function.a. Maximize Z = 4x1 + 2x2 + 5x3Subject to1x1 + 2x2 + 1x3 ≤ 251x1 + 4x2 + 2x3 ≤ 40 3x1 + 3x2 + 1x3 ≤ 30x1, x2, x3 ≥ 0 b. Maximize Z = 10x1 + 6x2 + 3x3Subject to1x1 + 1x2 + 2x3 ≤ 252x1 + 1x2 + 4x3 ≤ 40 1x1 + 2x2 + 3x3 ≤ 40x1, x2, x3 ≥ 0
#4) Debbie Gibson is considering three investment options for a small inheritance that she has just received-stocks, bonds, and money market. The return on her investment will depend on the performance of the economy, which can be strong, average, or weak. If the market is strong her returns are 9% for stocks, 6% for bonds and 4% for money market. If the market is average her returns are 5% for stocks, 4% for bonds and 6% for money market. If the market is weak her returns are -7% for stocks, 2% for bonds and 1% for money market. (Round values to the nearest hundredths of a percent). a) Create a decision table and a decision tree. b) Which investment should Debbie choose if she uses the maximax criterion? What are the returns? c) Which investment should Debbie choose if she uses the maximin criterion? What are the returns? d) Which investment should Debbie choose if she uses the equally likely criterion? What are the returns? e) Which investment should Debbie choose if she uses the…