facilities for drone production. The table below shows the potential profits/losses for each decision alternative in each of 4 market conditions (states of nature). Note that the numbers in red (with a minus sign) are losses. NOTE: I have provided some extra columns and rows for your computations. NOTE THAT THE OBJECTIVE IS TO MAXIMIZE PROFIT. STATES OF NATURE FOR POTENTIAL MARKETS FOR DRONES DECISION ALTERNATIVES EXCELLENT GOOD POOR FAIR OPEN 2 NEW PLANTS FOR $600,000 |$400,000 $200,000 $500,000 PRODUCTION OPEN 1 NEW PLANT FOR $500,000 |$200,000 $100,000 $300,000 PRODUCTION EXPAND CURRENT |S75,000 | $100,000 $150,000 PLANT DO NOTHING $0 so

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter7: Nonlinear Optimization Models
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 49P: If a monopolist produces q units, she can charge 400 4q dollars per unit. The variable cost is 60...
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Your company, Drones, INC, must decide on their path forward in regard to new or expanded
facilities for drone production. The table below shows the potential profits/losses for each
decision alternative in each of 4 market conditions (states of nature). Note that the numbers in
red (with a minus sign) are losses. NOTE: I have provided some extra columns and rows for
your computations. NOTE THAT THE OBJECTIVE IS TO MAXIMIZE PROFIT.
|STATES OF NATURE FOR POTENTIAL
MARKETS FOR DRONES
DECISION
ALTERNATIVES
|EXCELLENT GOOD
FAIR
IPOOR
OPEN 2 NEW
PLANTS FOR
$600,000
$400,000 $200,000
| $500,000
PRODUCTION
OPEN 1 NEW
PLANT FOR
$500,000
$200,000 $100,000
$300,000
PRODUCTION
EXPAND
CURRENT
$150,000
|$75,000
$100,000
$0
PLANT
DO NOTHING
$0
$0
$0
$0
Transcribed Image Text:Your company, Drones, INC, must decide on their path forward in regard to new or expanded facilities for drone production. The table below shows the potential profits/losses for each decision alternative in each of 4 market conditions (states of nature). Note that the numbers in red (with a minus sign) are losses. NOTE: I have provided some extra columns and rows for your computations. NOTE THAT THE OBJECTIVE IS TO MAXIMIZE PROFIT. |STATES OF NATURE FOR POTENTIAL MARKETS FOR DRONES DECISION ALTERNATIVES |EXCELLENT GOOD FAIR IPOOR OPEN 2 NEW PLANTS FOR $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 | $500,000 PRODUCTION OPEN 1 NEW PLANT FOR $500,000 $200,000 $100,000 $300,000 PRODUCTION EXPAND CURRENT $150,000 |$75,000 $100,000 $0 PLANT DO NOTHING $0 $0 $0 $0
(15) 18. Management first wants to know which decision to make if they assume each state of
nature is equally likely.
(15) 19. There are some management personnel that are very pessimistic about this project.
What decision would be made under a pessimistic (maximin) decision criterion?
(15) 20. Some personnel in management believe there is a 10 percent chance that the market
will be EXCELLENT, a 40 percent chance that it will be GOOD, a 30 percent chance the market
will be FAIR, and a 20 percent chance that it will be POOR. A market research firm will analyze
market conditions and will provide a perfect forecast (they provide a money back guarantee).
What is the most that should be paid for this forecast? NOTE: You need to compute the
EXPECTED VALUE OF PERFECT INFORMATION (EVPI) after computing EMV for each
decision alternative and finding the best EMV without hiring the market research firm.
(Show) all computations for EMV, as well as computations for Eweland EVPI.
Transcribed Image Text:(15) 18. Management first wants to know which decision to make if they assume each state of nature is equally likely. (15) 19. There are some management personnel that are very pessimistic about this project. What decision would be made under a pessimistic (maximin) decision criterion? (15) 20. Some personnel in management believe there is a 10 percent chance that the market will be EXCELLENT, a 40 percent chance that it will be GOOD, a 30 percent chance the market will be FAIR, and a 20 percent chance that it will be POOR. A market research firm will analyze market conditions and will provide a perfect forecast (they provide a money back guarantee). What is the most that should be paid for this forecast? NOTE: You need to compute the EXPECTED VALUE OF PERFECT INFORMATION (EVPI) after computing EMV for each decision alternative and finding the best EMV without hiring the market research firm. (Show) all computations for EMV, as well as computations for Eweland EVPI.
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