Draw a decision tree to decide what the best option would be.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section9.3: Single-stage Decision Problems
Problem 5P
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you are a party planner and you have been
tasked to arrange a charity function. You have
done some research and found that you can
either have the party at a hotel, or you can
have it at the zoo or a local hall can be rented.
If the function is popular and all the tickets are
sold out the function should make a profit of
R800 000 if it is held at a Hotel, if it is held at
the zoo the profit will be R900 000 if it is at a
local hall the profit will be R1 000 000. If the
function is unpopular and only few people
attend a loss of R 250 000 will be made if the
function is held at the hotel, at the zoo the
loss will be R150 000 and at the local hall the
loss will be R100 000. It is believed that the
probability of the function being popular is
0.5. It is possible to place adverts to promote
the function. It will cost R50 000 to place
adverts. If the advertising campaign is
successful the probability that the function will
be popular becomes 0.85. If the advertising
campaign is unsuccessful the probability of
the function being popular becomes 0.3.
Draw a decision tree to decide what the best
option would be.
Transcribed Image Text:you are a party planner and you have been tasked to arrange a charity function. You have done some research and found that you can either have the party at a hotel, or you can have it at the zoo or a local hall can be rented. If the function is popular and all the tickets are sold out the function should make a profit of R800 000 if it is held at a Hotel, if it is held at the zoo the profit will be R900 000 if it is at a local hall the profit will be R1 000 000. If the function is unpopular and only few people attend a loss of R 250 000 will be made if the function is held at the hotel, at the zoo the loss will be R150 000 and at the local hall the loss will be R100 000. It is believed that the probability of the function being popular is 0.5. It is possible to place adverts to promote the function. It will cost R50 000 to place adverts. If the advertising campaign is successful the probability that the function will be popular becomes 0.85. If the advertising campaign is unsuccessful the probability of the function being popular becomes 0.3. Draw a decision tree to decide what the best option would be.
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