Drysdale Co. (a U.S. firm) is considering a new project that would result in cash flows of 5 million Argentine pesos in 1 year under the most likely economic and political conditions. The spot rate of the Argentina peso in 1 year is expected to be $.40 based on these conditions. However, it wants to also account for the 10 percent probability of a political crisis in Argentina, which would change the expected cash flows to 4 million Argentine pesos in 1 year. In addition, it wants to account for the 20 percent probability that the exchange rate may only be $.36 at the end of 1 year. These two forms of country risk are independent. Drysdale’s required rate of return is 25 percent and its initial outlay for this project is $1.4 million. Show the distribution of possible outcomes for the project’s net present value (NPV).

International Financial Management
14th Edition
ISBN:9780357130698
Author:Madura
Publisher:Madura
Chapter16: Country Risk Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
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 Drysdale Co. (a U.S. firm) is considering a new project that would result in cash flows of 5 million Argentine pesos in 1 year under the most likely economic and political conditions. The spot rate of the Argentina peso in 1 year is expected to be $.40 based on these conditions. However, it wants to also account for the 10 percent probability of a political crisis in Argentina, which would change the expected cash flows to 4 million Argentine pesos in 1 year. In addition, it wants to account for the 20 percent probability that the exchange rate may only be $.36 at the end of 1 year. These two forms of country risk are independent. Drysdale’s required rate of return is 25 percent and its initial outlay for this project is $1.4 million. Show the distribution of possible outcomes for the project’s net present value (NPV).

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