During year three, Pricilla starting collecting data on why people were buying dresses. She and the people working in the store would ask whether the purchase was for an event (homecoming, party, prom, or wedding. You noticed that sells were higher in warmer months and decided to use average month temperatures. Also, you decided the separate weddings from other events. The following is a breakdown of the data. Average Monthly Year 3 Weddin Event Tempera Demand 9 ture 2 1 32 0 0 30 0 5 42 12 22 50 m 45 46 55 23 22 70 20 20 75 10 20 78 2 32 75 1 50 60 1 22 45 8 60 35 212 245 252 376 757 404 354 324 338 618 356 713 4949 Using the dress data above, calculate the following 1. Use Excel's regression function to develop a multiple regression forecast for Pricilla Phashions 2. Indicate ther2² of the model, and whether all the coefficients for the regression are significant. Using your regression model, calculate the dress sales for Year-3. Using the actual Year-3 numbers check your forecast accuracy, by calculating CFE, MSE, MAD, MAPE, and the tracking signal Finally, compare the causal forecast model you just developed to the best model that you developed previously. Recommend which forecasting model should Pricilla use. 3. 4. 5.
During year three, Pricilla starting collecting data on why people were buying dresses. She and the people working in the store would ask whether the purchase was for an event (homecoming, party, prom, or wedding. You noticed that sells were higher in warmer months and decided to use average month temperatures. Also, you decided the separate weddings from other events. The following is a breakdown of the data. Average Monthly Year 3 Weddin Event Tempera Demand 9 ture 2 1 32 0 0 30 0 5 42 12 22 50 m 45 46 55 23 22 70 20 20 75 10 20 78 2 32 75 1 50 60 1 22 45 8 60 35 212 245 252 376 757 404 354 324 338 618 356 713 4949 Using the dress data above, calculate the following 1. Use Excel's regression function to develop a multiple regression forecast for Pricilla Phashions 2. Indicate ther2² of the model, and whether all the coefficients for the regression are significant. Using your regression model, calculate the dress sales for Year-3. Using the actual Year-3 numbers check your forecast accuracy, by calculating CFE, MSE, MAD, MAPE, and the tracking signal Finally, compare the causal forecast model you just developed to the best model that you developed previously. Recommend which forecasting model should Pricilla use. 3. 4. 5.
Glencoe Algebra 1, Student Edition, 9780079039897, 0079039898, 2018
18th Edition
ISBN:9780079039897
Author:Carter
Publisher:Carter
Chapter10: Statistics
Section10.5: Comparing Sets Of Data
Problem 26PFA
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Transcribed Image Text:During year three, Pricilla starting collecting data on why people were buying dresses. She and the people working in the store would ask whether the purchase was for an event (homecoming, party, prom, or wedding. You noticed that sells were
higher in warmer months and decided to use average month temperatures. Also, you decided the separate weddings from other events. The following is a breakdown of the data.
Average
Monthly
Weddin Event Tempera
g
2.
3.
4.
5.
2
NOONEROONII B
TOSNEZANE
0
0
12
45
23
20
10
2
1
1
S
8
1
0
5
22
46
22
20
20
32
50
22
60
ture
32
30
42
50
55
70
75
78
75
60
45
35
Year 3
Demand
212
245
252
376
757
404
354
324
338
618
356
713
4949
Using the dress data above, calculate the following
1.
Use Excel's regression function to develop a multiple regression forecast for Pricilla Phashions
Indicate the r² of the model, and whether all the coefficients for the regression are significant.
Using your regression model, calculate the dress sales for Year-3.
Using the actual Year-3 numbers check your forecast accuracy, by calculating CFE, MSE, MAD, MAPE, and the tracking signal
Finally, compare the causal forecast model you just developed to the best model that you developed previously. Recommend which forecasting model should Pricilla use.
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