I have a bag with 3 coins in it. One of them is a fair coin, but the others are biased trick coins. When flipped, the three coins up heads with probability 0.5, 0.6 and 0.1 respectively. Suppose that I pick one of these three coins uniformly at random and flip it three times. (i) What is the probability that it comes up heads on the first flip and tails on the second and third flips? (ii) Assuming that the three flips, in order, are HTT, what is the probability that the coin that I picked was the fair coin?

Holt Mcdougal Larson Pre-algebra: Student Edition 2012
1st Edition
ISBN:9780547587776
Author:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Publisher:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Chapter11: Data Analysis And Probability
Section11.8: Probabilities Of Disjoint And Overlapping Events
Problem 2C
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I have a bag with 3 coins in it. One of them is a fair coin, but the others are biased trick coins. When flipped, the three coins up heads with probability 0.5, 0.6 and 0.1 respectively. Suppose that I pick one of these three coins uniformly at random and flip it three times. (i) What is the probability that it comes up heads on the first flip and tails on the second and third flips? (ii) Assuming that the three flips, in order, are HTT, what is the probability that the coin that I picked was the fair coin?
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