June Company is hired to do marketing for the county fair. June will be paid $300,000 plus a $50,000 bonus if ticket sales exceed last year’s total. June estimates there is a 20% chance that ticket sales will exceed last year’s. How much revenue will June recognize if it uses a probability weighted approach
Continuous Probability Distributions
Probability distributions are of two types, which are continuous probability distributions and discrete probability distributions. A continuous probability distribution contains an infinite number of values. For example, if time is infinite: you could count from 0 to a trillion seconds, billion seconds, so on indefinitely. A discrete probability distribution consists of only a countable set of possible values.
Normal Distribution
Suppose we had to design a bathroom weighing scale, how would we decide what should be the range of the weighing machine? Would we take the highest recorded human weight in history and use that as the upper limit for our weighing scale? This may not be a great idea as the sensitivity of the scale would get reduced if the range is too large. At the same time, if we keep the upper limit too low, it may not be usable for a large percentage of the population!
June Company is hired to do marketing for the county fair. June will be paid $300,000 plus a $50,000 bonus if ticket sales exceed last year’s total. June estimates there is a 20% chance that ticket sales will exceed last year’s. How much revenue will June recognize if it uses a probability weighted approach?
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