Metropolitan Hospital has estimated its average monthly bed needs, N, as: N=460+9X�=460+9�   where X = time period (months); (January 2002 = 0) Assume that no new hospital additions are expected in the area in the foreseeable future. The following monthly seasonal adjustment factors have been estimated, using data from the past five years: Forecast Metropolitan's bed demand for January, April, July, November, and December 2007. Month Adjustment Factor (%) Forecast January +5      April -15      July +4      November -5      December -25

Intermediate Algebra
19th Edition
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Author:Lynn Marecek
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Chapter12: Sequences, Series And Binomial Theorem
Section12.3: Geometric Sequences And Series
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Metropolitan Hospital has estimated its average monthly bed needs, N, as:
N=460+9X�=460+9�
 
where X = time period (months); (January 2002 = 0)
Assume that no new hospital additions are expected in the area in the foreseeable future. The following monthly seasonal adjustment factors have been estimated, using data from the past five years:
Forecast Metropolitan's bed demand for January, April, July, November, and December 2007.
Month
Adjustment Factor (%)
Forecast
January +5     
April -15     
July +4     
November -5     
December -25     
 
Suppose the following actual and forecast values for June bed demands have been recorded.
Year
Forecast
Actual
2007 1,045 1,139
2006 937 974
2005 829 895
2004 721 743
2003 613 656
2002 505 515
 
What seasonal adjustment factor would you recommend be used in making future June forecasts?
2.1%
 
5.5%
 
1.3%
 
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