Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Prediction =

College Algebra (MindTap Course List)
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Author:R. David Gustafson, Jeff Hughes
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Chapter5: Exponential And Logarithmic Functions
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Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992?

Prediction =   

 

Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2016. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?

 

Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? 

The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that
log(y) goes up uniformly.
log(y)
Moore's Law – The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018)
Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years.
This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress – such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are
linked to Moore's law.
OurWorld
in Data
11
50,000,000,000
10
10,000,000,000
72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400
SPARC M7
IBM z13 Storage Controller,
GC2 IPU
32-core AMD Epyc
„Apple A12X Bionic
Tegra Xavier SoC
5,000,000,000
18-core Xeon Haswell-E5,
Xbox One main SoC
61-core Xeon Phi
12-core POWER-
Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX8180
HiSilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic
HISilicon Kirin 710
8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX
1,000,000,000
Six-core Xeon 7400
Dual-core Itanium 20
$10-core Core i7 Broadwell-E
Pentium D Presler
Itanium 2 with
Dual-core +
Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Škylake K
Quad-core + GPU Core i7 Haswell
QualcommShapoore 17 Broadwell-U
Snapdragon 835
500,000,000
POWER6
Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 *mobile SoC")
9 MB cacheO
Itanium 2 Madison 6MO
Pentium D Smithfield
Core i7 (Quad)
AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3
Core 2 Duo Wolfdale
Core 2 Duo Conroe
Cell Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M
OCore 2 Duo Allendale
Pentium 4 Cedar Mill
Itanium 2 McKinley
100,000,000
Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO
50,000,000
AMD K8O VPentium 4 Prescott
Pentium 4 Northwoode OBarton
Pentium 4 Willametteo O.
Pentium II Mobile Dixone
Pentium III Tualatin
OAtom
7
10,000,000
AMD K7 O OPentium III Coppermine ARM Cortex-A9
AMD K6-I
AMD K6
Pentium Pro
5,000,000
OPentium III Katmai
8 OPentium Il Deschutes
Pentium II
Klamath
AMĎ K5
Pentium
6.
SA-110
1,000,000
Intel 80486
R4000
500,000
TI Explorer's 32-bit
Lisp'machine chip
ARM700
Intel 80386
Motorola 68020 0
Intel
19600
ARM 3
5
100,000
DEC WRL
MultiTitan
Intel 80286
Motorola
680000
50,000
Intel 80186
Intel 80860
Intel 8088
OARM 2
VARM 1
ARM 6
Motorola
6809
6SC816
Novix
NC4016
10,000
TMS 1000
Zilog Z80
RCA 1802
Bintel 8080
MOS Technology
5,000
Intel 8085
Intel 8008
Motorola 6502
Intel 4004
6800
1,000
1972
2006
2008
1982
1990
2002
2012
2018
Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count)
The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic.
Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser.
00
4.
Transistor count
1970
1974
1976
1978
1980
1984
1986
1988
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2004
2010
2014
2016
Transcribed Image Text:The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly. log(y) Moore's Law – The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress – such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are linked to Moore's law. OurWorld in Data 11 50,000,000,000 10 10,000,000,000 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 SPARC M7 IBM z13 Storage Controller, GC2 IPU 32-core AMD Epyc „Apple A12X Bionic Tegra Xavier SoC 5,000,000,000 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5, Xbox One main SoC 61-core Xeon Phi 12-core POWER- Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX8180 HiSilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic HISilicon Kirin 710 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX 1,000,000,000 Six-core Xeon 7400 Dual-core Itanium 20 $10-core Core i7 Broadwell-E Pentium D Presler Itanium 2 with Dual-core + Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Škylake K Quad-core + GPU Core i7 Haswell QualcommShapoore 17 Broadwell-U Snapdragon 835 500,000,000 POWER6 Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 *mobile SoC") 9 MB cacheO Itanium 2 Madison 6MO Pentium D Smithfield Core i7 (Quad) AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3 Core 2 Duo Wolfdale Core 2 Duo Conroe Cell Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M OCore 2 Duo Allendale Pentium 4 Cedar Mill Itanium 2 McKinley 100,000,000 Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO 50,000,000 AMD K8O VPentium 4 Prescott Pentium 4 Northwoode OBarton Pentium 4 Willametteo O. Pentium II Mobile Dixone Pentium III Tualatin OAtom 7 10,000,000 AMD K7 O OPentium III Coppermine ARM Cortex-A9 AMD K6-I AMD K6 Pentium Pro 5,000,000 OPentium III Katmai 8 OPentium Il Deschutes Pentium II Klamath AMĎ K5 Pentium 6. SA-110 1,000,000 Intel 80486 R4000 500,000 TI Explorer's 32-bit Lisp'machine chip ARM700 Intel 80386 Motorola 68020 0 Intel 19600 ARM 3 5 100,000 DEC WRL MultiTitan Intel 80286 Motorola 680000 50,000 Intel 80186 Intel 80860 Intel 8088 OARM 2 VARM 1 ARM 6 Motorola 6809 6SC816 Novix NC4016 10,000 TMS 1000 Zilog Z80 RCA 1802 Bintel 8080 MOS Technology 5,000 Intel 8085 Intel 8008 Motorola 6502 Intel 4004 6800 1,000 1972 2006 2008 1982 1990 2002 2012 2018 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser. 00 4. Transistor count 1970 1974 1976 1978 1980 1984 1986 1988 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2004 2010 2014 2016
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