Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not?

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Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992?

Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?

Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? 

Apple A12X Bionie
18-core Xeon Hawell-e
Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018)
Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years.
This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are
linked to Moore's law.
Our World
in Data
50,000,000,000
72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 0GC2 IPU
SPARC M7
10,000,000,000
IBM 213 Storage Controller
core AMD Epye
Apple A12XBonic
Tegra Xavier Soc
888 Ouloomm Snapdragon Bcw/SCXB180
5,000,000,000
Xbox One main
61-corm Xaon Ph 8 8.
HSlicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic
B-core Xeon Nehalem-EXPOWER
Six-core Xeon 7400
Dual-core Itanlum 20
HISicon Krin 710
e spre Corg i7 Broadwel
De omm Sneadragon B35
OOaoreCM Coe 7 Broadwell
uad-core a GPU Core i Ha skylake k
1,000,000,000
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500,000,000
cache
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"mobile SoCn
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VCore 2 Duo Woltdale
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9elCore 2 Duo Wolldale 3M
Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO Core 2 Duo Allendale
Itanium 2 Madison GMO
Pentkum D Smithfield
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100,000,000
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Pentium 4 Prescott
50,000,000
Otom
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AMD K7 6 OPentium i Copoemine ARM Cortex-Ag
10.000.000
AMD K6
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5,000,000
SA-10
1,000,000
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500,000
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ARMP00
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. ARM 3
100,000
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5,000
Intel B00
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1,000
1978
1980
1970
Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count)
The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic.
Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser.
The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You
can see that log(y) goes up uniformly.
log(y)
Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018)
Our World
in Data
Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years.
This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress – such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are
linked to Moore's law.
11
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72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 GC2 IPU
SPARC M7
10
10,000,000,000
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9.
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1986
Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count)
The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic.
Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser.
Transistor count
1972
1974
1976
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
00
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Transistor count
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Transcribed Image Text:Apple A12X Bionie 18-core Xeon Hawell-e Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are linked to Moore's law. Our World in Data 50,000,000,000 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 0GC2 IPU SPARC M7 10,000,000,000 IBM 213 Storage Controller core AMD Epye Apple A12XBonic Tegra Xavier Soc 888 Ouloomm Snapdragon Bcw/SCXB180 5,000,000,000 Xbox One main 61-corm Xaon Ph 8 8. HSlicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic B-core Xeon Nehalem-EXPOWER Six-core Xeon 7400 Dual-core Itanlum 20 HISicon Krin 710 e spre Corg i7 Broadwel De omm Sneadragon B35 OOaoreCM Coe 7 Broadwell uad-core a GPU Core i Ha skylake k 1,000,000,000 Pentium D Presler POWERS 500,000,000 cache "Apple A7 (dual-core "mobile SoCn RAMO KI0 oypd cop 2M L3 VCore 2 Duo Woltdale core 2Duo Corvoe 9elCore 2 Duo Wolldale 3M Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO Core 2 Duo Allendale Itanium 2 Madison GMO Pentkum D Smithfield Itanium 2 McKinleyo 100,000,000 Pentium 4 Cedar Mil AMD KBO O Pentium 4 Northwoode OBarton Pentium 4 Wiliamette ntium Tualatin Pentium 4 Prescott 50,000,000 Otom Pentium Mobile Dixone AMD K7 6 OPentium i Copoemine ARM Cortex-Ag 10.000.000 AMD K6 OPentium Katmai 5,000,000 SA-10 1,000,000 intel 8048 000 500,000 TI Explore's 32-bil. ARMP00 Intel 8030 Motorola 68020 o . ARM 3 100,000 50,000 Ointel B016 Intel 8080O Ointel 8088 ARM 10,000 TMS 1000 Ziog Z80 6809 RCA 1802 ntel Bces Bintel 8060 MOS Technology 5,000 Intel B00 Intel 4004 1,000 1978 1980 1970 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser. The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly. log(y) Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Our World in Data Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress – such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are linked to Moore's law. 11 50,000,000,00o 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 GC2 IPU SPARC M7 10 10,000,000,000 -core AMD E IBM z13 Storage Controller, 18-core Xeon Haswel-ES Xbox One main Soc 61-core Xeon Phi O 8 12-core POWER Tegra Xavlor SoC Ouhicomm Snapdragon 8c/SCX8180 HISilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic 10ve CSicon Kirin 710 8R.cpre Corg Broadwe O Dual core GU nE Core Broadwel-U 6 VQuad-core + GPU GT2 Core 17 Skyiake K 5,000,000,000 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX Sox-core Xeon 7400 Dual-core Itanium 20 9. 1,000,000,000 Pentium D Presler POWERE • Ouad-core + GPU Core i7 Haswel 500,000,000 .re Quad Apple A7 (dual-core ARMS4 "mobile SoC) Itanium 2 Madison BMO Pentium D Smithfield- 3MD KI0 ayad core 2M L3 Itanium 2 Mckinlayoed C Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO OCore 2 Duo Allendale Pentium 4 Cedar Mil 8 100,000,000 AMD K8O O Pentium 4 Northwoode OBarton Pentium 4 Wilamette entium Tualatin Pentium 4 Prescott 50,000,000 Pentium II Mobile Dixone AMD K7 OPentium ilI Coppermine AMD KB- OARM Cortex-A9 7 10,000,000 5,000,000 OPentium Katmai . Oenum Il Deschutes Pentium Proo Pentiume AMO KS 1,000,000 Intel 80486 R000 500,000 TI Explorer's 32-bi. ARM00 Intel B03 Motorola 68020. . PARM 3 100,000 Intel B0286 50,000 OIntel 80180 Intel 8080 o Intel 8088 OARM 2 RM 1 ARM 6 4 10,000 caie 5,000 vtel 800 Bntel Boso Aglgla Technology 3 1,000 1970 1986 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser. Transistor count 1972 1974 1976 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 00 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Transistor count 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your
estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to
be in 2040?
In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially")
that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0
and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use
logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick
marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms
of the new tick marks are equally spaced.
%3D
Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that
the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A
common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis
scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300
transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much
quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000
transistors, etc.
The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period
1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site
contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady
progression until you look carefully at the y-axis . it's not linear. From the graph, it
...
seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to
40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000
to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this.
Transcribed Image Text:From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced. %3D Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc. The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis . it's not linear. From the graph, it ... seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this.
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