Please pick a specialized book that interests you and point to 4 examples that contain numerical data that can be used to make decisions under uncertainty. (a) Please list each item in each example. (b) Please identify (1) decision maker; (2) alternatives; (3) uncertainties in each example
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Please pick a specialized book that interests you and point to 4 examples that contain numerical data that can be used to make decisions under uncertainty.
(a) Please list each item in each example.
(b) Please identify (1) decision maker; (2) alternatives; (3) uncertainties in each example.
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- 2. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.7), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. You must show your work for obtaining the points. PROFIT ($) STRONG MARKET FAIR MARKET POOR MARKET Large facility 550,000 110,000 -310,000 Medium-sized facility 300,00 129,000 -100,000 Small facility 200,000 100,000 -32,000 No facility 0 0 0You often hear about the trade-off between risk and reward. Is this trade-off part of decision making under uncertainty when the decision maker uses theEMV criterion? For example, how does this work in investment decisions?Using Excel Spreadsheet and formulas for this problem (make sure cell references are unique to your table). Provide all techniques practiced previously: five (5) techniques for Decisions Making under Uncertainty, EMV, EOL, and EVPI. Use α = 0.7 for the Hurwicz. Use the .50 for the probability of a Good Economy and .50 for the probability of a Poor Economy. Show the work on an Excel file. STATE OF NATURE DECISION ALTERNATIVE GOOD ECONOMY POOR ECONOMY Sotck market 80,000 -20,000 Bonds 30,000 20,000 CDs 23,000 23,000
- 28 When managers make decisions that are objective and for the best interest of the firm instead himself/herself, they are following the concept of A) escalation of commitment B) bounded rational decision making C) rational decision making D) intuitive decision making E) none of the aboveIf you want to invest in a project that cost $3.5 million. As we are unsure about the future demand, there is a 40% probability of high demand with a present value for the project $3 million. There is a 25% probability of moderate demand with a present value of $2.5 million. In addition, there is a 35% probability of low demand with a present value is $1.5 million. Draw a decision tree for this problem. What is the expected net present value of the business? Should you invest? Explain. Assume that you can expand the project by investing another $0.6 million after you learn the true future demand state. This would make the present value of the business $3.9 million in the high‐demand state, $3.5 million in the moderate demand state, and $1.80 million in the low demand state. Draw a decision tree to reflect the option to expand. Evaluate the alternatives. What is the net present value of the business if you consider the option to expand? How valuable is the option to expand?The fixed cost of $6 million in the Acme problem is evidently not large enough to make Acme abandon the product at the current time. How large would the fixed cost need to be to make the abandon option the bestoption? Explain how the decision tree, especially the version in Figure 9.5, answers this question easily.
- 1) A television network earns an average of $1.6 million each season from a hit program and loses an averageof $400,000 each season on a program that turns out to be a flop, and of all programs picked up by thisnetwork in recent years, 25% turn out to be hits and 75% turn out to be flops. a) Construct a decision tree to help the television network identify the strategy that maximizes itsexpected profit in responding to a newly proposed television program. Make sure to label all decision and chance nodes and include appropriate costs, payoffs and probabilities. b) What should the network do? What is their expected profit? c) The network can conduct market research to determine whether a program will be a hit or a flop. Ifthe market research report is perfectly reliable, what is the most the network should be willing to payfor it? 2) A buyer for a large sporting goods store chain must place orders for professional footballs with the footballmanufacturer six months prior to the time…An effective decision maker spends much time determining the possible scenarios in future. In the light of this statement, define and explain with examples all three approaches on how managers make decisions9- Majid is framing the decisions that will contribute significantly to the achievement of company objectives.The above statement refers to which of the following? a. Majid is framing strategic decisions b. Majid is framing simple decisions c. Majid is framing minor decision d. Majid is framing operational decisions
- In applying management science tools, a decision-maker commonly use the 7 steps. What are those? Lists and give examples to each steps. Requirement: The examples should be a scenario or a case1. Discuss the process you would employ to develop a suitable balanced scorecard for a tourist site organization and give examples of measures that would be incorporated within it. 2. Discuss how break even analysis can aid management in decision-making. 3. Discuss the practical difficulties associated with the use of breakeven analysis by managers in decision-making.In the problem on excel : 1.What are the decision variables 2.What is the objective functions 3. What are the 12 constraints and explain You won $750,000 from a lottery and, you have decided to come up with a list of possible investments that you will invest, all of the $750,000 that you have won. The expected return of each of the 6 possible investments that you are considering investing in,and their Expected Rate of Return over the next year are in the table below. Investment Expected Rate of return Amazon Inc (USA Shares) 13.5% Royal Bank of Canada (Canadian Shares) 7.4% Nike Inc (USA Shares) 10.0% Telus Corporation (Canadian Shares) 6.1% Snap Inc (USA Shares) 3.0% Nestle SA (Switzerland Shares) 4.8% it is important to have a diversified portfolio, and therefore have come up with the following guidelines on how to invest your money: 1.The total invested in USA Shares should be at least 10% but no more then 45% of the total…