Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.7), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. You must show your work for obtaining the points.
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2. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.7), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. You must show your work for obtaining the points.
|
|
PROFIT ($) |
||
|
|
STRONG MARKET |
FAIR MARKET |
POOR MARKET |
|
Large facility |
550,000 |
110,000 |
-310,000 |
|
Medium-sized facility |
300,00 |
129,000 |
-100,000 |
|
Small facility |
200,000 |
100,000 |
-32,000 |
|
No facility |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Mathematic models of decision-making help businesses take the correct decision for their operational activities. These decision-making models provide a deep analysis of the data and bring out the most accurate decision for the business. All decisions taken by using these models are beneficial for the business as all alternatives are well analyzed and evaluated.
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- In Example 11.1, the possible profits vary from negative to positive for each of the 10 possible bids examined. a. For each of these, use @RISKs RISKTARGET function to find the probability that Millers profit is positive. Do you believe these results should have any bearing on Millers choice of bid? b. Use @RISKs RISKPERCENTILE function to find the 10th percentile for each of these bids. Can you explain why the percentiles have the values you obtain?2. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for decision-making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.7), LaPlace, and Minimax Regret. Show the work on an Excel File. PROFIT ($) STRONG MARKET FAIR MARKET POOR MARKET Large facility 550,000 110,000 -310,000 Medium-sized facility 300,000 129,000 -100,000 Small facility 200,000 100,000 -32,000 No facility 0 0 03. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.4), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. Show the work on excel file. SIZE OF FIRST STATION GOOD MARKET FAIR MARKET POOR MARKET ($) ($) ($) Small 50,000 20,000 -10,000 Medium 80,000 30,000 -20,000 Large 100,000 30,000 -40,000 Very large 300,000 25,000 -160,000
- An investor is considering investing in stocks, real estate, or bonds economic conditions. Suppose that the probabilities for good, stable and poor conditions are 0.2, 0.4 and … (figure it out), respectively. Table 1 shows the payoff returns for the investor’s decision situation. Table 1: Investment returns Economic Conditions Investment Good Stable Poor Stocks R5 000 R7 000 R3 000 Real estate -R2 000 R10 000 R6 000 Bonds R4 000 R4 000 R4 000 Assuming the probabilities of the occurrence of the state of nature are unknown, what will be the best investment alternative; a) If the decision maker is pessimistic about the future state, (3) b) If the decision maker strikes a compromise between the maximin and maximax, assuming the coefficient of pessimism is 0.2. (4) c) If the decision is based on opportunistic loss. (6) d) If we use the equally likelihood criterionUse the table below to answer the questions that follow and caculate the Expected Monetary Value(EMV) of the different outcomesDECISION TABLE WITH CONDITIONAL VALUESSTATE OF NATUREFAVORABLE OUTCOME UNFAVORABLE OUTCOMEALTERNATIVES ($) ($)Start a big Company 2,000,000 -500,000Start a small company 800,000 -200,000Build Nothing 0 0Probabilities 0.3 0.7Calculate the following The EMV Maximin criterion Maximax criterion Minimax criterionUsing Excel Spreadsheet and formulas for this problem (make sure cell references are unique to your table). Provide all techniques practiced previously: five (5) techniques for Decisions Making under Uncertainty, EMV, EOL, and EVPI. Use α = 0.7 for the Hurwicz. Use the .50 for the probability of a Good Economy and .50 for the probability of a Poor Economy. Show the work on an Excel file. STATE OF NATURE DECISION ALTERNATIVE GOOD ECONOMY POOR ECONOMY Sotck market 80,000 -20,000 Bonds 30,000 20,000 CDs 23,000 23,000
- In the problem on excel : 1.What are the decision variables 2.What is the objective functions 3. What are the 12 constraints and explain You won $750,000 from a lottery and, you have decided to come up with a list of possible investments that you will invest, all of the $750,000 that you have won. The expected return of each of the 6 possible investments that you are considering investing in,and their Expected Rate of Return over the next year are in the table below. Investment Expected Rate of return Amazon Inc (USA Shares) 13.5% Royal Bank of Canada (Canadian Shares) 7.4% Nike Inc (USA Shares) 10.0% Telus Corporation (Canadian Shares) 6.1% Snap Inc (USA Shares) 3.0% Nestle SA (Switzerland Shares) 4.8% it is important to have a diversified portfolio, and therefore have come up with the following guidelines on how to invest your money: 1.The total invested in USA Shares should be at least 10% but no more then 45% of the total…Many decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions,1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utility.We have $1,000 to invest. All the money must be placedin one of three investments: gold, stock, or money marketcertificates. If $1,000 is placed in an investment, the valueof the investment one year from now depends on the stateof the economy (see Table 16). Assume that each state of the economy is equally likely. For each of the followingdecision criteria, determine the optimal decision:a maximinb maximaxc minimax regretd expected value Value of $1,000 State 1 State 2 State 3Money marketcertificate $1,100 $1,100 $1,100Stock $1,000 $1,100 $1,200Gold $1,600 $300 $1,400
- You often hear about the trade-off between risk and reward. Is this trade-off part of decision making under uncertainty when the decision maker uses theEMV criterion? For example, how does this work in investment decisions?1. Suppose you are going on a weekend trip to a city that is d miles away. Develop a model that determines your round-trip gasoline costs. What assumptions or approximations are necessary to treat this model as a deterministic model? Are these assumptions or approximations acceptable to you? 2. Suppose that a manager has a choice between the following two mathematical models of a given situation: (a)a relatively simple model that is a reasonable approximation of the real situation, and (b)a thorough and complex model that is the most accurate mathematical representation of the real situation possible. Why might the model described in part (a) be preferred by the manager?Please show the steps by using the formula for each Salalah Methanol company management is considering three competing investment Projects Option1: Starting a unit in Sohar, Option 2: Starting a unit in Musandam and Option 3: Starting a unit in Muscat. The initialinvestment for all the projects are 11000 and the cost of capital is 4.05% Year Sohar Musandam Muscat 1 1100 2160 3225 2 3100 3260 4250 3 3800 4360 5475 4 4600 5460 6300 5 5100 6900 7000 Use the information below and help the management in choosing the most desirable Project using a. Payback period b. Discounted payback c. Net Present value d. Profitability Index. You have to suggest to the management which project to choose and why