Question 3 (Forecasting) - Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6. Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7 c. Use a = .2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7 d. Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using a = .2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain. e. Use a smoothing constant of a = .4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. Does a smoothing constant of .2 or .4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain.

Practical Management Science
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Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
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Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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Question 3 (Forecasting)
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
6.
Value
18
13
16
11
17
14
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a
forecast for week 7
c. Use a = .2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Compute MSE and a
forecast for week 7
d. Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using
a = .2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain.
e. Use a smoothing constant of a = .4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. Does a
smoothing constant of .2 or .4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain.
Transcribed Image Text:Question 3 (Forecasting) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 6. Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7 c. Use a = .2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7 d. Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using a = .2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain. e. Use a smoothing constant of a = .4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. Does a smoothing constant of .2 or .4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain.
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