What is the expected sales for the 7th week based on 3 period moving average. What is the forecast for the 8th week using the same method if the actual sales for week 7 happens to be 70?  What is the expected sales for the 7th week based on exponential smoothing with α = 0.3?  Which of the above two forecasting method is better based on MSE? Explain why?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.6: Moving Averages Models
Problem 19P: The file P13_19.xlsx contains the weekly sales of a particular brand of paper towels at a...
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Following table shows the weekly sales of smart phones at electronic retail store:

Week

Number of smart phones Sold

Forecast using 3 period moving average

Error

Forecast using exponential smoothing (with α =0.4)

Error

1

48

 

 

 

 

2

41

 

 

 

 

3

55

 

 

 

 

4

64

 

 

 

 

5

62

 

 

 

 

6

55

 

 

 

 

7

 

 

 

 

 

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

Answer the following questions based on the data given above. Show all your calculations.

  1. What is the expected sales for the 7th week based on 3 period moving average. What is the forecast for the 8th week using the same method if the actual sales for week 7 happens to be 70? 
  2. What is the expected sales for the 7th week based on exponential smoothing with α = 0.3? 
  3. Which of the above two forecasting method is better based on MSE? Explain why?
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