Shan Co. is considering a four-year project that will require an initial investment of $12,000. The base-case cash flows for this project are projected to be $12,000 per year. The best-case cash flows are projected to be $19,000 per year, and the worst-case cash flows are projected to be -$3,000 per year. The company's analysts have estimated that there is a 50% probability that the project will generate the base-case cash flows. The analysts also think that there is a 25% probability of the project generating the best-case cash flows and a 25% probability of the project generating the worst-case cash flows. What would be the expected net present value (NPV) of this project if the project's cost of capital is 14%? O $17,138 O $16,281 O $17,995 O $18,852

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Chapter14: Real Options
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Problem 3MC: Tropical Sweets is considering a project that will cost $70 million and will generate expected cash...
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Shan Co. is considering a four-year project that will require an initial investment of $12,000. The base-case cash flows for this project are projected to
be $12,000 per year. The best-case cash flows are projected to be $19,000 per year, and the worst-case cash flows are projected to be -$3,000 per
year. The company's analysts have estimated that there is a 50% probability that the project will generate the base-case cash flows. The analysts also
think that there is a 25% probability of the project generating the best-case cash flows and a 25% probability of the project generating the worst-case
cash flows.
What would be the expected net present value (NPV) of this project if the project's cost of capital is 14%?
$17,138
$16,281
O $17,995
$18,852
Transcribed Image Text:Shan Co. is considering a four-year project that will require an initial investment of $12,000. The base-case cash flows for this project are projected to be $12,000 per year. The best-case cash flows are projected to be $19,000 per year, and the worst-case cash flows are projected to be -$3,000 per year. The company's analysts have estimated that there is a 50% probability that the project will generate the base-case cash flows. The analysts also think that there is a 25% probability of the project generating the best-case cash flows and a 25% probability of the project generating the worst-case cash flows. What would be the expected net present value (NPV) of this project if the project's cost of capital is 14%? $17,138 $16,281 O $17,995 $18,852
Shan now wants to take into account its ability to abandon the project at the end of year 2 if the project ends up generating the worst-case scenario
cash flows. If it decides to abandon the project at the end of year 2, the company will receive a one-time net cash inflow of $4,000 (at the end of year
2). The $4,000 the company receives at the end of year 2 is the difference between the cash the company receives from selling off the project's assets
and the company's -$3,000 cash outflow from operations. Additionally, if it abandons the project, the company will have no cash flows in years 3 and
4 of the project.
Using the information in the preceding problem, find the expected NPV of this project when taking the abandonment option into account.
$23,321
$19,434
$21,377
$22,349
What is the value of the option to abandon the project?
Transcribed Image Text:Shan now wants to take into account its ability to abandon the project at the end of year 2 if the project ends up generating the worst-case scenario cash flows. If it decides to abandon the project at the end of year 2, the company will receive a one-time net cash inflow of $4,000 (at the end of year 2). The $4,000 the company receives at the end of year 2 is the difference between the cash the company receives from selling off the project's assets and the company's -$3,000 cash outflow from operations. Additionally, if it abandons the project, the company will have no cash flows in years 3 and 4 of the project. Using the information in the preceding problem, find the expected NPV of this project when taking the abandonment option into account. $23,321 $19,434 $21,377 $22,349 What is the value of the option to abandon the project?
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