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Suppose a hospital is considering a new high- risk operation and is interested in the number of patients that had a successful operation. We denote that quantity by X and we assume that X~Bin(n,0), where 0 is the risk of failure of the operation. From knowledge available from other hospitals, we assign a prior distribution on 0 and more specifically, 0-Beta(3,27). After operating on n = 10 patients, the hospital recorded 0 failures. What is the probability that there are 2 or more failures in the next 20 operations? Choose the number that is as close as possible to your result. Hint: infer the posterior predictive distribution and evaluate .

Suppose a hospital is considering a new high- risk operation and is interested in the number of patients that had a successful operation. We denote that quantity by X and we assume that X~Bin(n,0), where 0 is the risk of failure of the operation. From knowledge available from other hospitals, we assign a prior distribution on 0 and more specifically, 0-Beta(3,27). After operating on n = 10 patients, the hospital recorded 0 failures. What is the probability that there are 2 or more failures in the next 20 operations? Choose the number that is as close as possible to your result. Hint: infer the posterior predictive distribution and evaluate .

Algebra & Trigonometry with Analytic Geometry
Algebra & Trigonometry with Analytic Geometry
13th Edition
ISBN:9781133382119
Author:Swokowski
Publisher:Swokowski
Chapter10: Sequences, Series, And Probability
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 27T
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Suppose a hospital is considering a new high- risk operation and is interested in the number of patients that had a successful operation. We denote that quantity by X and we assume that X~Bin(n,0), where 0 is the risk of failure of the operation. From knowledge available from other hospitals, we assign a prior distribution on 0 and more specifically, 0~Beta(3,27). After operating on n = 10 patients, the hospital recorded 0 failures. What is the probability that there are 2 or more failures in the next 20 operations? Choose the number that is as close as possible to your result. Hint: infer the posterior predictive distribution and evaluate.
Transcribed Image Text:Suppose a hospital is considering a new high- risk operation and is interested in the number of patients that had a successful operation. We denote that quantity by X and we assume that X~Bin(n,0), where 0 is the risk of failure of the operation. From knowledge available from other hospitals, we assign a prior distribution on 0 and more specifically, 0~Beta(3,27). After operating on n = 10 patients, the hospital recorded 0 failures. What is the probability that there are 2 or more failures in the next 20 operations? Choose the number that is as close as possible to your result. Hint: infer the posterior predictive distribution and evaluate.
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