Suppose Box I contains five red balls andtwo white ones while Box II contains onered and four white ones. A box is chosenat random by selecting a random numberfrom 0 through 9. If a 1 or 2 is selected,Box I is chosen; otherwise Box II is chosen.If I took Box 1 and chose 2 balls withoutreplacement, what is the proabability thatexactly one would be red?

Probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood of events happening. It's a…

Answered: Suppose Box I contains five red balls…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.5: Multistage Decision Problems

Problem 21P

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

Although the normal distribution is a reasonable input distribution in many situations, it does have two potential drawbacks: (1) it allows negative values, even though they may be extremely improbable, and (2) it is a symmetric distribution. Many situations are modelled better with a distribution that allows only positive values and is skewed to the right. Two of these that have been used in many real applications are the gamma and lognormal distributions. @RISK enables you to generate observations from each of these distributions. The @RISK function for the gamma distribution is RISKGAMMA, and it takes two arguments, as in =RISKGAMMA(3,10). The first argument, which must be positive, determines the shape. The smaller it is, the more skewed the distribution is to the right; the larger it is, the more symmetric the distribution is. The second argument determines the scale, in the sense that the product of it and the first argument equals the mean of the distribution. (The mean in this example is 30.) Also, the product of the second argument and the square root of the first argument is the standard deviation of the distribution. (In this example, it is 3(10=17.32.) The @RISK function for the lognormal distribution is RISKLOGNORM. It has two arguments, as in =RISKLOGNORM(40,10). These arguments are the mean and standard deviation of the distribution. Rework Example 10.2 for the following demand distributions. Do the simulated outputs have any different qualitative properties with these skewed distributions than with the triangular distribution used in the example? a. Gamma distribution with parameters 2 and 85 b. Gamma distribution with parameters 5 and 35 c. Lognormal distribution with mean 170 and standard deviation 60
Based on Kelly (1956). You currently have 100. Each week you can invest any amount of money you currently have in a risky investment. With probability 0.4, the amount you invest is tripled (e.g., if you invest 100, you increase your asset position by 300), and, with probability 0.6, the amount you invest is lost. Consider the following investment strategies: Each week, invest 10% of your money. Each week, invest 30% of your money. Each week, invest 50% of your money. Use @RISK to simulate 100 weeks of each strategy 1000 times. Which strategy appears to be best in terms of the maximum growth rate? (In general, if you can multiply your investment by M with probability p and lose your investment with probability q = 1 p, you should invest a fraction [p(M 1) q]/(M 1) of your money each week. This strategy maximizes the expected growth rate of your fortune and is known as the Kelly criterion.) (Hint: If an initial wealth of I dollars grows to F dollars in 100 weeks, the weekly growth rate, labeled r, satisfies F = (I + r)100, so that r = (F/I)1/100 1.)
In Example 11.3, if a batch fails to pass inspection, the entire batch is unusable. Change the model so that if a batch fails to pass inspection, it is reworked, and at the end of the rework, its entire yield (the same yield determined in column C) is usable. However, the rework takes 3, 4, or 5 days with respective probabilities 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3. Run the simulation for the modified model and comment on how the results change.
In Example 11.1, the possible profits vary from negative to positive for each of the 10 possible bids examined. a. For each of these, use @RISKs RISKTARGET function to find the probability that Millers profit is positive. Do you believe these results should have any bearing on Millers choice of bid? b. Use @RISKs RISKPERCENTILE function to find the 10th percentile for each of these bids. Can you explain why the percentiles have the values you obtain?
The members of a private golf club have handicaps that are normally distributedwith mean 15 and standard deviation 3.5. In a particular event, foursomes are chosen by grouping four players chosen at random from the club. The handicap of thefoursome is the arithmetic average of the handicaps of the four players comprisingthe foursome. In what proportion of the foursomes will the handicap of the foursome be less than 10 or more than 20? (Hint: The standard deviation of the average of four independent identically distributed random variables is exactly half thestandard deviation of one of them.)
Suppose that Pizza King and Noble Greek stopadvertising but must determine the price they will chargefor each pizza sold. Pizza King believes that Noble Greek’sprice is a random variable D having the following massfunction: P(D $6) .25, P(D $8) .50, P(D $10) .25. If Pizza King charges a price p1 and NobleGreek charges a price p2, Pizza King will sell 10025( p2 p1) pizzas. It costs Pizza King $4 to make a pizza.Pizza King is considering charging $5, $6, $7, $8, or $9 fora pizza. Use each decision criterion of this section todetermine the price that Pizza King should charge.
each company sinks wells of the same size at the same time. If both companies sink wide wells, each will extract 2 million barrels in 6 months, but each company will receive profit of only GHC 1 million. On the other if each company sinks a narrow well, it will take a year for Clampett and TEXplor to extract their respective shares, but their profits will be GHC14 million apiece. Finally, if one company drills a wide well while the other company drills a narrow well, the first company will extract 3 million barrels and the second company will extract only 1 million barrels. In this case, the first company will earn profits of GHC 16 million and the second company will actually lose GHC 1million.1. Illustrate this using a normal form game. 2. Does either firm have a strictly dominant strategy? If yes, what is (are) these strategies? Explain your answer. 3. What strategy will each firm adopt? Explain your answer. 4. Does this game have a Nash equilibrium? Explain your answer5. Is…
An urn contains 10 red balls and 30 blue balls.a Suppose you draw 4 balls from the urn. Let Xi bethe number of red balls drawn on the ith ball (Xi 0 or1). After each ball is drawn, it is put back into the urn. Are the random variables X1, X2, X3, and X4 indepen-dent random variables? b Repeat part (a) for the case in which the balls are notput back in the urn after being drawn.
In the figure below, no probabilities are known for the occurrence of the nature states. For the matrix, solve every one of the subpoints with the respective formulas: Laplace Maximin(Minimax) Savage Hurwitz (assume that α=0.3)
Suppose we are solving a maximization problem andthe variable xr is about to leave the basis.a What is the coefficient of xr in the current row 0?b Show that after the current pivot is performed, thecoefficient of xr in row 0 cannot be less than zero.c Explain why a variable that has left the basis on agiven pivot cannot re-enter the basis on the next pivot.
Consider the following problem: Maximize z = 2x1 + 2x2 + 4x3 subject to: 2x1 + x2 + x3 <= 2 3x1 + 4x2 + 2x3 >= 8 x1, x2, x3 >= 0 (a) Show that Phase I will terminate with an artificial basic variable at zero level (you may use TORA for convenience). (b) Remove the zero artificial variable prior to the start of Phase II, then carry out Phase II iterations.
1. Suppose you are going on a weekend trip to a city that is d miles away. Develop a model that determines your round-trip gasoline costs. What assumptions or approximations are necessary to treat this model as a deterministic model? Are these assumptions or approximations acceptable to you? 2. Suppose that a manager has a choice between the following two mathematical models of a given situation: (a)a relatively simple model that is a reasonable approximation of the real situation, and (b)a thorough and complex model that is the most accurate mathematical representation of the real situation possible. Why might the model described in part (a) be preferred by the manager?

SEE MORE QUESTIONS

Recommended textbooks for you

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

SEE MORE TEXTBOOKS