Suppose that the Phillips curve is given by 7, = n; +0.1- 2u, a. What is the natural rate of unemployment? Assume = On, and suppose that 0 is initially equal to 0. Suppose that the rate of unemployment is initially equal to the natural rate. In year 1, the authorities decide to bring the unemployment rate down to 3% and hold it there forever. b. Determine the rate of inflation in years 1,1+1,1 +2, and 1+5. c. Do you believe the answer given in (b)? Why or why not? (Hint: Think about how people are likely to form expectations of inflation.)

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Chapter35: The Short-Run Trade-off Between Inflation And Unemployment
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1. Mutations of the Phillips curve
Suppose that the Phillips curve is given by
7, = x; + 0.1– 2u,
a. What is the natural rate of unemployment?
Assume z; = Or, and suppose that 0 is initially equal to 0. Suppose that the rate
of unemployment is initially equal to the natural rate. In year 1, the authorities decide
to bring the unemployment rate down to 3% and hold it there forever.
b. Determine the rate of inflation in years 1,t+1,1+2, and 1+5.
c. Do you believe the answer given in (b)? Why or why not?
(Hint: Think about how people are likely to form expectations of inflation.)
Now suppose that in year 1+5, 0 increases from 0 to 1. Suppose that the
government is still determined to keep u at 3% forever.
d. Why might 0 increase in this way?
e. What will the inflation rate be in years 1+5, 1+6, and 1+7?
f. Do you believe the answer given in (e)? Why or why not?
Transcribed Image Text:1. Mutations of the Phillips curve Suppose that the Phillips curve is given by 7, = x; + 0.1– 2u, a. What is the natural rate of unemployment? Assume z; = Or, and suppose that 0 is initially equal to 0. Suppose that the rate of unemployment is initially equal to the natural rate. In year 1, the authorities decide to bring the unemployment rate down to 3% and hold it there forever. b. Determine the rate of inflation in years 1,t+1,1+2, and 1+5. c. Do you believe the answer given in (b)? Why or why not? (Hint: Think about how people are likely to form expectations of inflation.) Now suppose that in year 1+5, 0 increases from 0 to 1. Suppose that the government is still determined to keep u at 3% forever. d. Why might 0 increase in this way? e. What will the inflation rate be in years 1+5, 1+6, and 1+7? f. Do you believe the answer given in (e)? Why or why not?
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