Suppose the due date of the project is 24 months and expected time of completion is 28 months, while the probability of completing it is 90%. What will be the standard deviation?
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- Please do not give solution in image formate thanku. 11-24 Using PERT, Ed Rose was able to determine that the expected project completion time for the construction of a pleasure yacht is 21 months and the project variance is 4. What is the probability that the project will be completed in 17 months or less? What is the probability that the project will be completed in 20 months or less? What is the probability that the project will be completed in 23 months or less? What is the probability that the project will be completed in 25 months or less?For this question, please use the standard normal distribution table, Table A2. It has been estimated that the mean time required to complete a project is 20 weeks and the variance of project completion time is 9 weeks. What is the probability that the project will be completed in 23 weeks?Consider a public project with the cost of 500. There are three individuals with the following benefits for the public good: v1=400, v2=200 and v3=0. Which of the following statement is false about the VCG (Vickrey-Clarke-Groves) mechanism? None of the options The budget deficit is 200 VCG mechanism is strategy-proof The tax for individual 3 is equal to 0 The tax for individual 1 is equal to 300
- Assume that $1,285,673 is to be invested in a project whose annual projected cash flows are as follows: Year 1 = $235,678, Year 2 = $267,854, Year 3 = $298,054, Year 4 = $314,567, and Year 5 = $325,678. Assume that the required rate of return is 5.25%. Compute the NPV by using Microsoft Excel's NPV function. Be sure to show your work. Should the project be pursued? Why or why not?Consider the following information for the Alachua Retirement Fund, with a total investment of $4 million. [5] Stock Investment Beta A $ 400,000 1.2 B 600,000 -0.4 C 1,000,000 1.5 D 2,000,000 0.8 The market required rate of return is 12 percent, and the risk-free rate is 6 percent. What is its required rate of return? Stock A has the following probability distribution of expected returns: [5] Probability Rate of Return 0.1 -15% 0.2 0 0.4 5 0.2 10 25 What is Stock A’s coefficient of variation? What is Stock T’s coefficient of…A manager wants to expand summer resort facilities now or wait at least another year. If he expands now and the upcoming summer season is good, the profit will be K246 000; and if not good, the loss will be K60 000. If he delays the expansion for at least a year and the upcoming summer season is good, the profit will be K120 000; if the season is poor, the profit will be K12 000. Required: Assuming the probability of a good summer in both cases is 1/3, use Bayesian analysis to aid the manager.
- Given the following payoff table with the profits ($m), a firm might expect alternative investments (A, B, C) under different levels of interest rate. (Attached)(a) Which alternative should the firm choose under the maximax criterion? (b) Which option should the firm choose under the maximin criterion? (c) Which option should the firm choose under the LaPlace criterion? (d) Which option should the firm choose with the Hurwicz criterion with α = 0.2? (e) Using a minimax regret approach, what alternative should the firm choose? (f) Economists have assigned probabilities of 0.35, 0.3, and 0.35 to the possible interest levels 1, 2, and 3 respectively. Using expected monetary values, what option should be chosen and what is that optimal expected value? (g) What is the most that the firm should be willing to pay for additional information? Use Expected Regret (h) Use the alternative method to verify EVPI Part 2 Assume now that the pay offs are costs answer the following: (a) Using an…Consider a project with the following cash flows: year 1, 2$400; year 2, $200; year 3, $600; year 4, 2$900; year 5, $1000; year 6, $250; year 7, $230. Assume a discount rate of 15% per year.a. Find the project’s NPV if cash flows occur at the ends of the respective years.b. Find the project’s NPV if cash flows occur at the beginnings of the respective years.c. Find the project’s NPV if cash flows occur at the middles of the respective years.A store owner must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location. Demand at a location can be either small or large, which probabilities estimated to be 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If small facility is built and demand proves to be high, the manager may choose not to expand (payoff=P235,000) or to expand (payoff=P275,000). If a small facility is built and demand is low, there is no reason to expand and the payoff is P220,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, the choice is to do nothing (P60,000) or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising may be either modest or sizable, with their probabilities estimated to be 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. If it is modest, the payoff grows to P230,000 if the response is sizable. Finally, if a large facility is built and demand turns out to be high, the payoff is P900,000.a.) Draw a decision tree.b.) Determine the expected payoff for each decision and event node.c.)…
- The purpose of this assignment is to know how to apply normal probability distribution concepts to a real business case. The case study starts under Unit 4. and Unit 4.1 is the continuation. Compute the projected profit for the order quantities suggested by the management team under three scenarios: worst case in which sales = 10,000 units, most likely case in which sales = 20,000 units, and best case in which sales = 30,000 units. The order quantity should have a 70% chance of meeting demand and only a 30% chance of stock-outs. What quantity would be ordered under this policy, and what is the projected profit under the three sales scenarios?Specifying optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely or mode times are sufficient to generate the beta distribution describing completion times. The applet opens with values Optimistic = 2 weeks, Pessimistic = 11 weeks, and Mode = 4 weeks. Drag the mode line inside the distribution to see how the shape changes as expectations about the most likely outcome change. Drag between 0 and the current Optimistic value to change the Optimistic value. Drag, in either direction, beyond the upper end to change the pessimistic value.A company is planning on launching a new product. It was thinking of launching in June of next year, but it believes that a rival is also considering launching a similar product around that time. The company is considering bringing the launch forward to the end of this year. This will cost an extra $3M to carry out and the company believes it will have a 0.8 probability of beating the rival to the market. If, however, they wait until June, the probability of beating the rival falls to 0.2. To make the decision easier, the company assumes that sales will be either high, medium or low. If the company launches before its rival, the probability of high sales is 0.6, the probability of medium sales is 0.25, and the probability of low sales is 0.15. If it launches after its rival, the probability of high sales falls to 0.35, medium sales rises to 0.45, and low sales rises to 0.2. The financial impacts are that high sales would be worth $9M, medium would be worth $5M and low, $1M. Using…