Suppose there are two full bowls of cookies. Bowl one has 10 chocolate chip and 30 sugar cookies, while bowl two has 20 of each. Our friend Fred picks a bowl at random, and then picks a cookie at random. We may assume there is no reason to believe Fred treats one bowl differently from another, likewise for the cookies. The cookie turns out to be a sugar cookie. How probable is it that Fred picked it out of bowl one?

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  1. Suppose there are two full bowls of cookies. Bowl one has 10 chocolate chip and 30 sugar cookies, while bowl two has 20 of each. Our friend Fred picks a bowl at random, and then picks a cookie at random. We may assume there is no reason to believe Fred treats one bowl differently from another, likewise for the cookies. The cookie turns out to be a sugar cookie. How probable is it that Fred picked it out of bowl one?

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