Suppose we have the following time series data on variable Y where t = trend: tY 1 10 2 15 3 15 4 25 5 55 What is the forecast value of Y when t = 6 using the simple trend model (first order polynomial)? What is the forecast value of Y when t = 6 using a third-order polynomial model? Explain how one would choose the best forecasting model in general?

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