Suppose you were selected from a population at random to take a medical test. It is believed that there is a 5% chance that you are ill (i.e. you have the disease), since that is the disease prevalence for asymptomatic people like yourself. Suppose that the test you take has some error rate. If you are ill, it will correctly identify you as positive 90% of the time. If you not ill, it will give a false positive 2% of the time. What is probability that you are ill given a positive test result?
Suppose you were selected from a population at random to take a medical test. It is believed that there is a 5% chance that you are ill (i.e. you have the disease), since that is the disease prevalence for asymptomatic people like yourself. Suppose that the test you take has some error rate. If you are ill, it will correctly identify you as positive 90% of the time. If you not ill, it will give a false positive 2% of the time. What is probability that you are ill given a positive test result?
Holt Mcdougal Larson Pre-algebra: Student Edition 2012
1st Edition
ISBN:9780547587776
Author:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Publisher:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Chapter11: Data Analysis And Probability
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 8CR
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Suppose you were selected from a population at random to take a medical test. It is believed that there is a 5% chance that you are ill (i.e. you have the disease), since that is the disease prevalence for asymptomatic people like yourself. Suppose that the test you take has some error rate. If you are ill, it will correctly identify you as positive 90% of the time. If you not ill, it will give a false positive 2% of the time. What is probability that you are ill given a positive test result?
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