TABLE IC 16.1 Financial Statements and Other Data on NWC (Millions of Dollars) A. Balance Sheets 2016 2017E Cash and equivalents $ 20 $ 25 Accounts receivable 240 300 Inventories 240 300 Total current assets $ 500 $ 625 Net fixed assets 500 625 Total assets $1,000 $1,250 Accounts payable and accrued liabilities $ 100 $ 125 Notes payable 100 $ 200 190 Total current liabilities $ 315 Long-term debt 100 190 Common stock 500 500 Retained earnings 200 245 Total liabilities and equity $1.000 $1.250 B. Income Statements 2016 2017E Sales $2,000.00 $2,500.00 Variable costs 1,200.00 1,500.00 Fixed costs 700.00 875.00 Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) $ 100.00 $ 125.00 Interest 16.00 16.00 Earnings before taxes (EBT) 84.00 $ 109.00 Тахes (40%) 33.60 43.60 Net income 50.40 65.40 Dividends (30%) 15,12 19.62 Addition to retained earnings 35.28 45.78 C. Key Ratios NWC (2016) NWC (2017E) Industry Comment Basic earning power 10.00% 10.00% 20.00% Profit margin 2.52 2.62 4.00 Retum on equity 7.20 8.77 15.60 Days sales outstanding (365 days) 43.80 days 43.80 days 32.00 days Inventory turnover Fixed assets turnover 8.33x 8.33x 11.00x 4.00 4.00 5.00 Total assets turnover 2.00 2.00 2.50 Total liabilities/assets 30.00% 40.40% 36.00% Times interest earned 6.25 x 7.81x 9.40 x Current ratio 2.50 1.99 3.00 Payout ratio 30.00% 30.00% 30.00%
FINANCIAL
California producer of specialized chemicals for use in fruit orchards, must prepare a formal financial forecast
for 2017. NWC’s 2016 sales were $2 billion, and the marketing department is forecasting a 25% increase for
2017. Wilson thinks the company was operating at full capacity in 2016, but she is not sure. The first step in
her forecast was to assume that key ratios would remain unchanged and that it would be “business as usual”
at NWC. The 2016 financial statements, the 2017 initial forecast, and a ratio analysis for 2016 and the 2017
initial forecast are given in Table IC 16.1.
Assume that you were recently hired as Wilson’s assistant and that your first major task is to help her
develop the formal financial forecast. She asks you to begin by answering the following questions.
a. Assume (1) that NWC was operating at full capacity in 2016 with respect to all assets, (2) that all assets
must grow at the same rate as sales, (3) that accounts payable and accrued liabilities also will grow at
the same rate as sales, and (4) that the 2016 profit margin and dividend payout will be maintained.
Under those conditions, what would the AFN equation predict the company’s financial requirements to
be for the coming year?
b. Consultations with several key managers within NWC, including production, inventory, and receivable
managers, have yielded some very useful information.
1. NWC’s high DSO is largely due to one significant customer who battled through some hardships the
past 2 years but who appears to be financially healthy again and is generating strong cash flow. As a
result, NWC’s
calculated DSO of 34 days without adversely affecting sales.
2. NWC was operating slightly below capacity; but its forecasted growth will require a new facility,
which is expected to increase NWC’s net fixed assets to $700 million.
3. A relatively new inventory management system (installed last year) has taken some time to catch on and
to operate efficiently. NWC’s inventory turnover improved slightly last year, but this year NWC expects
even more improvement as inventories decrease and inventory turnover is expected to rise to 10 .
Incorporate that information into the 2017 initial forecast results, as these adjustments to the initial forecast
represent the final forecast for 2017. (Hint: Total assets do not change from the initial forecast.)
c. Calculate NWC’s forecasted ratios based on its final forecast and compare them with the company’s
2016 historical ratios, the 2017 initial forecast ratios, and the industry averages. How does NWC
compare with the average firm in its industry, and is the company’s financial position expected to
improve during the coming year? Explain.
d. Based on the final forecast, calculate NWC’s
FCF forecasted by NWC’s initial “business as usual” forecast?
e. Initially, some NWC managers questioned whether the new facility expansion was necessary, especially
as it results in increasing net fixed assets from $500 million to $700 million (a 40% increase). However,
after extensive discussions about NWC needing to position itself for future growth and being flexible
and competitive in today’s marketplace, NWC’s top managers agreed that the expansion was
necessary. Among the issues raised by opponents was that NWC’s fixed assets were being operated
at only 85% of capacity. Assuming that its fixed assets were operating at only 85% of capacity, by how
much could sales have increased, both in dollar terms and in percentage terms, before NWC reached
full capacity?
f. How would changes in the following items affect the AFN: (1) the dividend payout ratio, (2) the profit
margin, (3) the capital intensity ratio, and (4) NWC beginning to buy from its suppliers on terms that
permit it to pay after 60 days rather than after 30 days? (Consider each item separately and hold all
other things constant.)
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