The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of operation: MONTH January February March April May June COMPLAINTS 36 45 81 90 108 144 If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May? Forecast for May
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
- The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of operation: MONTH COMPLAINTS January 38 February 49 March 85 April 97 May 115 June 144 If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May?The past two years sales at ACSR Inc. were 3 million and 5 million. Their forecast team used a two-period moving average to forecast its sales this year. But the actual sales for this year were 5 million. Now, the forecast team wants to forecast its sales for next year by using exponential smoothing with alpha equals 0.6. What is the forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .6? 2. If we decide to use an alpha of .2 instead of .6, will we be ‘weighting the error from the previous period higher or the Forecast from the previous period higher? Explain briefly or show using math! (In this question I am asking if we change the alpha to a lower alpha, what will be the effect – what will we be ‘weighing’ as more important?)The following table contains the number of complaints received in the department store for first 6 months of operation:Month Jan Feb Mar April May JuneComplaints 36 45 81 90 108 144a. Calculate the forecast for the month from April through June using 3 month moving average? b. What will be the forecast for the month of July using 3 month moving average? c. If actual sales for the month of July turned out to be 145, what will be theforecast for August month using 3 month moving Average?
- The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store forthe i rst 6 months of operation: If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May?If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May? The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of operation: MONTH COMPLAINTS January 37 February 48 March 84 April 96 May 114 June 148 If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May? 114 121 76 73Holiday Lodge The Holiday Lodge is a large hotel and casino in the Adirondacks. The relatively new hotel is two years old, and the manager is trying to develop a plan to staff the maintenance department. The hotel’s manager wants to use the two years of data below to forecast one month ahead of maintenance calls. The data is provided in the spreadsheet named HOLIDAY LODGE DATA.XLS Month Calls 1 46 2 39 3 28 4 21 5 14 6 16 7 14 8 13 9 9 10 13 11 18 12 15 13 12 14 6 15 19 16 9 17 12 18 14 19 16 20 12 21 13 22 9 23 14 24 15 Develop a forecast for month 25 using a 4 month moving average, exponential smoothing (a = 0.2) and regression. Which forecast is preferred? Why?
- Suppose that the Perpetual Help College of Rizal had the following record of its growth of enrollment from 2011 -2020. Year Enrolment Year Enrolment 2011 5,200 2016 7,000 2012 5,500 2017 8,800 2013 6,000 2018 9,400 2014 6,500 2019 9,600 2015 6,800 2020 10,500 a) Develop a forecast of enrolment beginning 2014 to 2021 using 3-years moving average forecast model. b) Using weights of .50 for the most recent data, .30 to the second recent data, and .20 to the 3 months old data, develop a forecast beginning 2014 to 2021 using 3 years weighted moving average forecast…Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey, Delphi, averaging, seasonal, naive, trend, orassociative) that would be most appropriate for predicting:b. Popularity of a new television series.The president of the Southern University wants to forecast student enrolments for this academic year based on the following historical data: (5 years ago enrolment was 10508 ), (4 years ago enrolment was 12646), (3 years ago enrolment was 13018 ), (2 years ago enrolment was 16012 ) and in the last year enrolment was 19323 . What is the forecast for this year using three periods simple moving average? a. 12057.333 b. 14301.4 c. 13892 d. 16117.667
