The Polo Development Firm is building a shopping center. It has informed renters that their rental spaces will be ready for occupancy in 19 months. If the expected time until the shopping center is completed is estimated to be 14 months, with a standard deviation of 4 months, what is the probability that the renters will not be able to occupy in 19 months?
Q: The mean annual earning for U.S. workers with advanced degrees is $80,977 with a standard deviation…
A: Note, Since you have posted multiple subparts in the same questions, we will be answering the first…
Q: he General Electric refrigerator value is -0.5352 in the valuation of this refrigerator. Values…
A: Talking about th frost refrigerator then it is thw refrigerator that keeps the food fresh for longer…
Q: specimens of asphalt be suitable for the intended pavement application, the mean stabilized…
A: There are a total of 15 specimens, for each specimen, we have the value of stabilized viscosity,…
Q: The admissions officer at a small college compares the scores on the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT)…
A: Given n1: Sample Size of Sample 1: Number of male applicants in the sample 17 n2: Sample Size…
Q: n oil company is trying to decide whether to drill for oil in a particular field. It costs the…
A:
Q: Precision Parts is a job shop that specializes in producing electric motor shafts. The average shaft…
A: Formula:
Q: Mr. Maloy has just bought a new $30,000 sport utility vehicle. As a reasonably safe driver, he…
A: If Insurance been taken Accident type Conditional Probability Damage to vehicle Insurance Cost…
Q: The claim payments on a sample of ten policies are: 2 3 3 5 5* 6 7 7* 9 10* + indicates that the…
A:
Q: Randolph College and Salem College are within 20 milesof each other, and the students at each…
A:
Q: An automobile manufacturer is concerned about a fault in the braking mechanism of a particular…
A: given, distribution number of cars per year =8 on average
Q: After meeting with the regional sales managers, Lauretta Anderson, president of Cowpie Computers,…
A: Given information: Sales Grow = 10% New operating System = 30% Sales increases = 10% Sales…
Q: A person must score in the upper 2% of the population on an IQ test to qualify for membership in…
A:
Q: The following table is a payoff matrix associated with a farmer’s decision to purchase a pump for…
A: Find the Given details below: Given Details: Future Crop Demand State of Nature High Medium…
Q: The Eagles will play the Falcons on Sunday, September 12, 2021. Suppose the Eagles have a 40% chance…
A: Probability is honestly how possible something is to occur. A probability distribution table…
Q: A hardware company sells a lot of low-cost, high volume products. For one such product, it is…
A:
Q: The average number of phone calls to a call center on Thursday nights from 10:00 PM to 11:00 PM is…
A: For this given question, we know about the average number of calls that is here, 6.3, here, I have…
Q: Develop a decision tree. b) Which supplier should Kellogg use?
A:
Q: The company Litely sells 1,350 electrical switches per year and at the same time, it makes orders of…
A:
Q: The mean life of a certain ball bearing can be modeled using a normal distribution with amean of six…
A: Mean (M) = 6 years Standard deviation (SD) = 1 year
Q: Bill Hardgrave, production foreman for the Virginia Fruit Company, estimates that the average sales…
A: Standard deviation refers to the technique used to measure the variation of a set of values. The…
Q: A contractor submits a bid on a project for which more research and development work needs to be…
A: A standard deviation is a statistic that measures a dataset's dispersion from the mean. By…
Q: Answer all questions
A:
Q: A carpenter is making doors that are 2058 millimeters tall. If the doors are too long they must be…
A: The following information is given in the question: The carpenter is making doors that are 2058…
Q: A customer has approached a bank for a $100,000 one-year loan at an 8% interest rate. If the bank…
A: a. The accompanying screen shot shows the different information sources referenced in the inquiry.…
Q: optimal lot sizes and reorder points for this brand
A: The decision Variable Q is the number of units to be purchased at the beginning of the period. The…
Q: A metropolitan school system consists of three districts—north, south, and central. The north…
A: A metropolitan school has different district where students studies, They have given details of…
Q: A company is deciding whether to develop and launch a new product. Research and development costs…
A:
Q: Compcomm, Inc., is an international communications andinformation technology company that has seen…
A: The simulation model is following
Q: The Hoylake Rescue Squad receives an emergency call every 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 hours, accordingto the…
A: Time between probability Cumulative probability 1…
Q: 2. Suppose a rancher must decide whether to take his cattle to market in the morning or afternoon.…
A:
Q: A new edition of a very popular textbook will be published a year from now. The publisher currently…
A: Given data, Copies in Hand = 1000 Fixed Cost = $15000 Variable Cost = $20 per book Seeling Price =…
Q: The manager of the local National Video Store sells videocassette recorders at discount prices. If…
A: Given information, Customer demand = 90% Mean = 180 Standard Deviation = 60
Q: Hoping to increase the chances of reaching a performance goal, the director of a research project…
A: LET P (T1)=0.9 P(T2)=0.8 P(T3)=0.7
Q: A gambler in Las Vegas is cutting a deck of cards for $1,000. What is the probability that the card…
A: There would be 12 face cards in the deck of 52 cards. The probability can be calculated as follows:…
Q: Planetary Communications, Inc., intends to launch a satellite that will enhance reception of…
A:
Q: A polling firm is taking a survey regarding a proposed new law. Of the voters polled, 30% are in…
A: Given information, Voter Polled = 30% Surveyed people = 10 Probabiltiy = 4
Q: Planetary Communications, Inc., intends to launch a satellite that will enhance reception of…
A:
Q: The director of research and development is testing a new drug. She wants to know if there is…
A: H0 : = 363
Q: Deborah Hollwager, a concessionaire for the Amway Center in Orlando, has developed a table of…
A: Given-
Q: The average number of operational losses in a year at a particular plant is 18, so the number of…
A:
Q: An equipment which costs $15000 has to be replaced with a new equipment. The follovg data have been…
A: Find the given details below: Given details: Year Resale Value Annual maintenance cost 1…
Q: A metropolitan school system consists of two districts, east and west. The east district contains…
A: Formula:
Q: Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Denver Police Department. The quality of the…
A: Given Information:
Q: A software company recently designed and developed a new service for its customers. However, it…
A: Decision-making is the process of using various tools and research to make a decision. for making a…
Q: The owner of Western Clothing Company has determined that the company must sell 670 pairs of denim…
A: Here, mean is 805 and standard deviation is 207 and more than 670 pairs of jeans need to be sold to…
Q: A normally distributed random variable has a mean of 240 and a standard deviation of 172 what is the…
A: The answer is as below:
The Polo Development Firm is building a shopping center. It has informed renters that their
rental spaces will be ready for occupancy in 19 months. If the expected time until the shopping
center is completed is estimated to be 14 months, with a standard deviation of 4 months, what is
the probability that the renters will not be able to occupy in 19 months?
Trending now
This is a popular solution!
Step by step
Solved in 2 steps
- Based on Babich (1992). Suppose that each week each of 300 families buys a gallon of orange juice from company A, B, or C. Let pA denote the probability that a gallon produced by company A is of unsatisfactory quality, and define pB and pC similarly for companies B and C. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is satisfactory, the next week they will purchase a gallon of juice from the same company. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is not satisfactory, the family will purchase a gallon from a competitor. Consider a week in which A families have purchased juice A, B families have purchased juice B, and C families have purchased juice C. Assume that families that switch brands during a period are allocated to the remaining brands in a manner that is proportional to the current market shares of the other brands. For example, if a customer switches from brand A, there is probability B/(B + C) that he will switch to brand B and probability C/(B + C) that he will switch to brand C. Suppose that the market is currently divided equally: 10,000 families for each of the three brands. a. After a year, what will the market share for each firm be? Assume pA = 0.10, pB = 0.15, and pC = 0.20. (Hint: You will need to use the RISKBINOMLAL function to see how many people switch from A and then use the RISKBENOMIAL function again to see how many switch from A to B and from A to C. However, if your model requires more RISKBINOMIAL functions than the number allowed in the academic version of @RISK, remember that you can instead use the BENOM.INV (or the old CRITBENOM) function to generate binomially distributed random numbers. This takes the form =BINOM.INV (ntrials, psuccess, RAND()).) b. Suppose a 1% increase in market share is worth 10,000 per week to company A. Company A believes that for a cost of 1 million per year it can cut the percentage of unsatisfactory juice cartons in half. Is this worthwhile? (Use the same values of pA, pB, and pC as in part a.)You now have 10,000, all of which is invested in a sports team. Each year there is a 60% chance that the value of the team will increase by 60% and a 40% chance that the value of the team will decrease by 60%. Estimate the mean and median value of your investment after 50 years. Explain the large difference between the estimated mean and median.Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.
- A new edition of a very popular textbook will be published a year from now. The publisher currently has 1000 copies on hand and is deciding whether to do another printing before the new edition comes out. The publisher estimates that demand for the book during the next year is governed by the probability distribution in the file P10_31.xlsx. A production run incurs a fixed cost of 15,000 plus a variable cost of 20 per book printed. Books are sold for 190 per book. Any demand that cannot be met incurs a penalty cost of 30 per book, due to loss of goodwill. Up to 1000 of any leftover books can be sold to Barnes and Noble for 45 per book. The publisher is interested in maximizing expected profit. The following print-run sizes are under consideration: 0 (no production run) to 16,000 in increments of 2000. What decision would you recommend? Use simulation with 1000 replications. For your optimal decision, the publisher can be 90% certain that the actual profit associated with remaining sales of the current edition will be between what two values?It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to produce a 1000-pound batch of a drug. The average yield from a batch is unknown but the best case is 90% yield (that is, 900 pounds of good drug will be produced), the most likely case is 85% yield, and the worst case is 70% yield. The annual demand for the drug is unknown, with the best case being 20,000 pounds, the most likely case 17,500 pounds, and the worst case 10,000 pounds. The drug sells for 125 per pound and leftover amounts of the drug can be sold for 30 per pound. To maximize annual expected profit, how many batches of the drug should the company produce? You can assume that it will produce the batches only once, before demand for the drug is known.W. L. Brown, a direct marketer of womens clothing, must determine how many telephone operators to schedule during each part of the day. W. L. Brown estimates that the number of phone calls received each hour of a typical eight-hour shift can be described by the probability distribution in the file P10_33.xlsx. Each operator can handle 15 calls per hour and costs the company 20 per hour. Each phone call that is not handled is assumed to cost the company 6 in lost profit. Considering the options of employing 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, or 16 operators, use simulation to determine the number of operators that minimizes the expected hourly cost (labor costs plus lost profits).
- Dilberts Department Store is trying to determine how many Hanson T-shirts to order. Currently the shirts are sold for 21, but at later dates the shirts will be offered at a 10% discount, then a 20% discount, then a 40% discount, then a 50% discount, and finally a 60% discount. Demand at the full price of 21 is believed to be normally distributed with mean 1800 and standard deviation 360. Demand at various discounts is assumed to be a multiple of full-price demand. These multiples, for discounts of 10%, 20%, 40%, 50%, and 60% are, respectively, 0.4, 0.7, 1.1, 2, and 50. For example, if full-price demand is 2500, then at a 10% discount customers would be willing to buy 1000 T-shirts. The unit cost of purchasing T-shirts depends on the number of T-shirts ordered, as shown in the file P10_36.xlsx. Use simulation to determine how many T-shirts the company should order. Model the problem so that the company first orders some quantity of T-shirts, then discounts deeper and deeper, as necessary, to sell all of the shirts.You have 5 and your opponent has 10. You flip a fair coin and if heads comes up, your opponent pays you 1. If tails comes up, you pay your opponent 1. The game is finished when one player has all the money or after 100 tosses, whichever comes first. Use simulation to estimate the probability that you end up with all the money and the probability that neither of you goes broke in 100 tosses.At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.
- The game of Chuck-a-Luck is played as follows: You pick a number between 1 and 6 and toss three dice. If your number does not appear, you lose 1. If your number appears x times, you win x. On the average, use simulation to find the average amount of money you will win or lose on each play of the game.Based on Marcus (1990). The Balboa mutual fund has beaten the Standard and Poors 500 during 11 of the last 13 years. People use this as an argument that you can beat the market. Here is another way to look at it that shows that Balboas beating the market 11 out of 13 times is not unusual. Consider 50 mutual funds, each of which has a 50% chance of beating the market during a given year. Use simulation to estimate the probability that over a 13-year period the best of the 50 mutual funds will beat the market for at least 11 out of 13 years. This probability turns out to exceed 40%, which means that the best mutual fund beating the market 11 out of 13 years is not an unusual occurrence after all.Software development is an inherently risky and uncertain process. For example, there are many examples of software that couldnt be finished by the scheduled release datebugs still remained and features werent ready. (Many people believe this was the case with Office 2007.) How might you simulate the development of a software product? What random inputs would be required? Which outputs would be of interest? Which measures of the probability distributions of these outputs would be most important?