The Vintage Restaurant, on Captive Island near Fort Meyers, Florida, is owned and operated by Karen Payne. The restaurant just completed its second year of operation. Below are the sales for those two years (in ten thousands of dollars). Month First Year Second Year January 57 61 February 51 75 March 58 54 April 57 56 May 68 62 June 72 71 July 60 59
The Vintage Restaurant, on Captive Island near Fort Meyers, Florida, is owned and operated by Karen Payne. The restaurant just completed its second year of operation. Below are the sales for those two years (in ten thousands of dollars).
Month |
First Year |
Second Year |
January |
57 |
61 |
February |
51 |
75 |
March |
58 |
54 |
April |
57 |
56 |
May |
68 |
62 |
June |
72 |
71 |
July |
60 |
59 |
August |
51 |
75 |
September |
68 |
68 |
October |
51 |
50 |
November |
71 |
64 |
December |
75 |
58 |
a) Construct a time-series plot in excel. (Label axes and graph)
b) Develop a six month moving average. Compute MSE and forecast the amount of sales for the next month.
c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values. Compute MSE and forecast for the next month.
d) Compare the result for the six month average and exponential smoothing. Which appears to provide a better forecast based on MSE? Explain.
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