The Vintage Restaurant, on Captive Island near Fort Meyers, Florida, is owned and operated by Karen Payne. The restaurant just completed its second year of operation. Below are the sales for those two years (in ten thousands of dollars). Month First Year Second Year January 57 61 February 51 75 March 58 54 April 57 56 May 68 62 June 72 71 July 60 59 August 51 75 September 68 68 October 51 50 November 71 64 December 75 58 b) Develop a six month moving average. Compute MSE and forecast the amount of sales for the next month. c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values. Compute MSE and forecast for the next month. d) Compare the result for the six month average and exponential smoothing. Which appears to provide a better forecast based on MSE? Explain.
The Vintage Restaurant, on Captive Island near Fort Meyers, Florida, is owned and operated by Karen Payne. The restaurant just completed its second year of operation. Below are the sales for those two years (in ten thousands of dollars).
|
Month |
First Year |
Second Year |
|
January |
57 |
61 |
|
February |
51 |
75 |
|
March |
58 |
54 |
|
April |
57 |
56 |
|
May |
68 |
62 |
|
June |
72 |
71 |
|
July |
60 |
59 |
|
August |
51 |
75 |
|
September |
68 |
68 |
|
October |
51 |
50 |
|
November |
71 |
64 |
|
December |
75 |
58 |
b) Develop a six month moving average. Compute MSE and forecast the amount of sales for the next month.
c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values. Compute MSE and forecast for the next month.
d) Compare the result for the six month average and exponential smoothing. Which appears to provide a better forecast based on MSE? Explain.
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