Transcriptional bursting is a fundamental property of genes in which transcription from DNA to mRNA can occur in "bursts" or "pulses". Consider the experiment of observing the number of mRNA transcriptions until observing four "bursts." Suppose the probability of a burst in gene expression is 6.5%. Suppose another researcher is only interested in the number of mRNA until the first "burst". What is the probability that 18 mRNA transcripts are made until the 1st burst?

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