Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are as follows: Period Demand 1 5678AWNH 2 3 4 68 7万 70 74 69 72 80 78 75 PREDICTED DEMAND F2 64 62 70 73 76 79 79 80 F1 62 66 71 67 73 67 " 73 77
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- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?which of the following are charactersitics of qualitative forecasting methods? 1. Function of past data,2. Non numerical data , 3. useful when past data is avaialable , based on 4. broad range of knowledge , personal judgement, and intuition?
- 31. Forecasting must take several factors into account all of the following statements are true EXCEPT:A. past demandB. planned advertising or marketing strategiesC. estimating level and trendsD. actions competitors takeIt wouldnt let me take a screenshot of the table so I had to copy and paste it in here. My question is: How do you Calculate a moving average forecast using the last 2 and 4 dates of stay. What is the prediction for 7/1/2021 for each technique? Discussion Question 1 - 200 room hotel Forecasts MA 2 Errors MA 4 Errors ES (0.8) Errors ES (0.5) Errors Date Day of Week Rooms Sold MA 2 MA 4 ES (0.8) ES (0.5) AE APE AE APE AE APE AE APE 6/1/2021 Tuesday 123 6/2/2021 Wednesday 109 6/3/2021 Thursday 140 6/4/2021 Friday 199 6/5/2021 Saturday 179 6/6/2021 Sunday 140 6/7/2021 Monday 117 6/8/2021 Tuesday 132 6/9/2021 Wednesday 108 6/10/2021 Thursday 151…b. Compute the MSE for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) MSE F1 ? % MSE F2 ? % F1 or F2 or none appears to be more accurate. d. Compute MAPE for each data set. Which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your intermediate calculations to 2 decimal places and and final answers to 2 decimal places.) MAPE F1 ? % MAPE F2. ? %
- You have the following data: Actual Forecast 1 50 50 2 46 3 52 4 51 5 48 6 45 7 52 8 46 9 51 10 48 Compute the forecast using exponential smoothing with Using MSE, which of the above gives the best forecast of "Actual"? A) 0.8 B) 0.6 C) 0.4 D) 0.1 Note:- Do not provide handwritten solution. Maintain accuracy and quality in your answer. Take care of plagiarism. Answer completely. You will get up vote for sure.A skeptical manager asks what medium-range forecasts canbe used for. Give the manager three possible uses/purposes.33- Judgmental forecasts have the following strengths, except___________. a. Can include “inside” and “soft” information difficult to quantify b. Difficulty in understanding causal relationships c. Can compensate for “one-time” or unusual events d. Highly responsive to latest changes in environment
