Undertake a decision analysis. Specifically, apply the maximax, maximin, Laplace and minimax (regret) approaches. Interpret your results.
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- Question 4An investor is to purchase one of three types of real estate, as illustrated in Figure below. Theinvestor must decide among an apartment building, an office building, and a warehouse. Thefuture states of nature that will determine how much profit the investor will make are goodeconomic conditions and poor economic conditions. The profits that will result from eachdecision in the event of each state of nature are shown in Table below: a) Find the optimal act using Maxi-Max criteriab) Find the optimal act using Mini-Max criteria c) Find the optimal act using Maxi-Min criteria d) Find the optimal act using Min-Max regret tablepls answer the 2nd question: The Montemar Company is considering contracting with a market research firm to do a survey to determine future market conditions. The results of the survey will indicate either positive or negative market conditions. There is a 0.60 probability of a positive report, given favorable conditions; a 0.30 probability of a positive report, given stable conditions; and 0.10 probability of a positive report; given unfavorable conditions. There is a 0.90 probability of negative report, given unfavorable conditions; a 0.70 probability given stable conditions; and a 0.40 probability, given favorable conditions. d & e, as per the guidelinespls answer the 2nd question: The Montemar Company is considering contracting with a market research firm to do a survey to determine future market conditions. The results of the survey will indicate either positive or negative market conditions. There is a 0.60 probability of a positive report, given favorable conditions; a 0.30 probability of a positive report, given stable conditions; and 0.10 probability of a positive report; given unfavorable conditions. There is a 0.90 probability of negative report, given unfavorable conditions; a 0.70 probability given stable conditions; and a 0.40 probability, given favorable conditions. a b & c, as per the guidelines
- QUESTION 3a) Explain the risk management procedure. Set out the risks associated with attendingthe annual Engineering Institute of Zambia symposium in Livingstone. Draw a riskregister (log) and populate it with at least four perceived risks. Analyse these risksand rank them.b) You are planning the manufacture of modification to an existing product. Youranalysis has come up with the following information. What contingency reservewould you use? Project data Costcontingency There is a 30 percent probability of a delay in thereceipt of parts, with a cost to the project ofZMW90,000. There is a 20 percent probability that the parts willcost ZMW 100,000 less than expected. There is a 25 percent probability that two parts willnot fit together when installed, costing an extraZMW30,500. There is a 30 percent probability that themanufacture may be simpler than expected, savingZMW20,500. There is a 5 percent probability of a design defect,causing ZMW 50,000 of…QUESTION 1The table below shows the sales figures for a brand of shoe over the last 12 months.Months SalesJanuary 69February 75March 86April 92May 95June 100July 108August 115September 125October 131November 140December 150 a. Using the following, forecast the sales for the months up to January the following year:-i. A simple three month moving averageQUESTION 1The table below shows the sales figures for a brand of shoe over the last 12 months. Months SalesJanuary 69February 75March 86April 92May 95June 100July 108August 115September 125October 131November 140December 150 a. Using the following, forecast the sales for the months up to January the following year:- ii. A three period weighted moving average using weights of 1, 2 and 3. Assign thehighest weight to the most recent data.
- Question (4): Answer the following problem: Cover Me, Inc. sells umbrellas in two cities. Management assumes that annual rainfall is the primary determinant of umbrella sales, and it wants to generate a linear regression equation to estimate potential sales in another city. Use the table below to develop a linear regression equation to find out what sales might be if the rainfall is 12 inches in City C. Show your work in the below table Rainfall X Sales Y X2 XY City A 36 inches 200 City B 30 inches 250 City C 12 inches Total 66 450QUESTION THREEGiven the LP below:a) Solve the problem using big M-methodMinimize Z = 3X1 +4X2s.t 4X1 + X2 ≥ 30−X1 − 4X2 ≤ −184X1 + 3X2 ≥ 28X1, X2, ≥ 0question A manufacturer is developing a facility plan to provide production capacity for the factory. the amount of capacity required in the future depends on the number of products demanded by its customers. The data below reflect past sales of its products. a) use simple linear regression to forecast annual demand for the products for each of the nnext 3 years. b) determine the correlation coefficient for the data and interpret its meaning. c) find the coefficient of determination for the data and interprete its meaning. year annual sales (number of products year annual sales (number of products) 1 490 5 461 2 487 6 475 3 492 7 472 4 478 8 458
- QUESTION ONE(a) Mr. Sak is interested in developing and marketing a new drug. The cost of extensiveresearch to develop the drug would be 100,000. The manager of research programme saidthat there is 60% chance that the drug will be developed successfully. The market potentialis assessed as follows with present value of profit:Market conditions Probability Present value of profits.Large market potential 0.1 500,000Moderate market potential 0.6 220,000Low market potential 0.3 80,000The present value figures do not include the cost of research. While Mr. Sakala wasconsidering this proposal, another similar proposal came up which also required theinvestment of 100,000. The present value of profit for the second proposal was 120,000.The return on the investment in the second proposal is almost certain.i. Draw a decision tree for Mr. Sak indicating all choices and eventsii. What decision Mr. Sak should take regarding the investment of 100,000?iii. If Mr. Sak is a risk averter, should he…QUESTION 1 Sales of Fat Lips Burgers for 2012 are shown in the table below. 1. Do the 2 month SMA forecast 2. Do 2 month WMA forecast using the information below WMA – 2: last month, 1 – last 2 months 3. For the month of January 2012, the forecast was 438. Do the EMA forecast with the smoothing constant = 0.3. What is the forecast for Jan 2013? 4. Compare the forecasts above using MAD, MSE and MAPE. Which forecast method gives the least errors? Month Actual Sales Forecast Jan 2012 438 Feb 420 March 414 Apr 318 May 306 June 240 July 240 Aug 216 Sep 198 Oct 225 Nov 270 Dec 315 Jan 2013 - QUESTION 2Dayang sells 5 kg bags of fertilizer to local farmers in Tg Karang. The sales data for the past 11 months is shown below. Month Demand (10s of bags) 1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 8 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 14 11 15 1. Find the forecast for the month 12 using the methods below: a. Simple 4 month moving average (SMA) b.…QUESTION ONE (b) The forecast of a product for the first week of January was 200 units, whereas the actual demand turned out to be 220 units. i. Find the forecast for the week of January assuming the smoothing constant 0.2 α = ii. Find the forecast for the third week of third week of January if the actual demand of the second week is 210 units