The Montemar Company is considering contracting with a market research firm to do a survey to determine future market conditions. The results of the survey will indicate either positive or negative market conditions. There is a 0.60 probability of a positive report, given favorable conditions; a 0.30 probability of a positive report, given stable conditions; and 0.10 probability of a positive report; given unfavorable conditions. There is a 0.90 probability of negative report, given unfavorable conditions; a 0.70 probability given stable conditions; and a 0.40 probability, given favorable conditions. a) Draw the revised decision tree. b) Determine the decision strategy the company should follow. c) Determine the expected value of the strategy d) Determine the maximum amount the company should pay the market research firm for the survey results. e) Compute the efficiency of the sample information for the Montemar Company.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 31P
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pls answer the 2nd question:

The Montemar Company is considering contracting with a market research firm to do a survey to determine future market conditions.  The results of the survey will indicate either positive or negative market conditions.  There is a 0.60 probability of a positive report, given favorable conditions; a 0.30 probability of a positive report, given stable conditions; and 0.10 probability of a positive report; given unfavorable conditions.  There is a 0.90 probability of negative report, given unfavorable conditions; a 0.70 probability given stable conditions; and a 0.40 probability, given favorable conditions.

d & e, as per the guidelines

The Montemar...Company is going to introduce one of three new products: a widget, a
hummer, or a Nimnot. The market conditions (favorable, stable, or unfavorable) will
determine the profit or loss the company realizes, as shown in the following payoff table:
Product
Widget
Hummer
Nimnot
Favorable (0.20)
$120,000
60,000
35,000
Market Conditions
Stable (0.70)
$70,000
40,000
30,000
Unfavorable (0.10)
($30,000)
20,000
30,000
a) Draw the decision tree.
b) Compute the expected value for each decision and select the best one.
c) Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected opportunity loss or each
product.
d) Determine how much the firm would be willing to pay to a market research firm to
gain better information about future market condition.
Transcribed Image Text:The Montemar...Company is going to introduce one of three new products: a widget, a hummer, or a Nimnot. The market conditions (favorable, stable, or unfavorable) will determine the profit or loss the company realizes, as shown in the following payoff table: Product Widget Hummer Nimnot Favorable (0.20) $120,000 60,000 35,000 Market Conditions Stable (0.70) $70,000 40,000 30,000 Unfavorable (0.10) ($30,000) 20,000 30,000 a) Draw the decision tree. b) Compute the expected value for each decision and select the best one. c) Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected opportunity loss or each product. d) Determine how much the firm would be willing to pay to a market research firm to gain better information about future market condition.
The Montemar Company is considering contracting with a market research firm to do a
survey to determine future market conditions. The results of the survey will indicate either
positive or negative market conditions. There is a 0.60 probability of a positive report, given
favorable conditions; a 0.30 probability of a positive report, given stable conditions; and 0.10
probability of a positive report; given unfavorable conditions. There is a 0.90 probability of
negative report, given unfavorable conditions; a 0.70 probability given stable conditions; and
a 0.40 probability, given favorable conditions.
a) Draw the revised decision tree.
b) Determine the decision strategy the company should follow.
c) Determine the expected value of the strategy
d) Determine the maximum amount the company should pay the market research firm for
the survey results.
e) Compute the efficiency of the sample information for the Montemar Company.
Transcribed Image Text:The Montemar Company is considering contracting with a market research firm to do a survey to determine future market conditions. The results of the survey will indicate either positive or negative market conditions. There is a 0.60 probability of a positive report, given favorable conditions; a 0.30 probability of a positive report, given stable conditions; and 0.10 probability of a positive report; given unfavorable conditions. There is a 0.90 probability of negative report, given unfavorable conditions; a 0.70 probability given stable conditions; and a 0.40 probability, given favorable conditions. a) Draw the revised decision tree. b) Determine the decision strategy the company should follow. c) Determine the expected value of the strategy d) Determine the maximum amount the company should pay the market research firm for the survey results. e) Compute the efficiency of the sample information for the Montemar Company.
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ISBN:
9781337406659
Author:
WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:
Cengage,