Use Holt-Winter’s multiplicative method to create a seasonal model that minimizes the MSE for the data set. Use Solver to determine the optimal values of alpha, beta, and gamma. We can initialize these variables to 0. a. What are the optimal values of alpha, beta, and gamma? b. What are the forecasts for each of the next 6 months using this technique? Year Month Time Period COGS 1 1 1 21637 2 2 25506 3 3 26594 4 4 21933 5 5 23117 6 6 26979 7 7 28337 8 8 28926 9 9 25015 10 10 28196 11 11 24170 12 12 25004 2 1 13 24575 2 14 35848 3 15 35217 4 16 32759 5 17 36542 6 18 36109 7 19 40279 8 20 37816 9 21 36338 10 22 37814 11 23 39359 12 24 34151 3 1 25 39862 2 26 50664 3 27 48533 4 28 45382 5 29 43981 6 30 41276 7 31 44284 8 32 46920 9 33 47469 10 34 43187

Use Holt-Winter’s multiplicative method to create a seasonal model that minimizes the MSE for the data set. Use Solver to determine the optimal values of alpha, beta, and gamma. We can initialize these variables to 0. a. What are the optimal values of alpha, beta, and gamma? b. What are the forecasts for each of the next 6 months using this technique? Year Month Time Period COGS 1 1 1 21637 2 2 25506 3 3 26594 4 4 21933 5 5 23117 6 6 26979 7 7 28337 8 8 28926 9 9 25015 10 10 28196 11 11 24170 12 12 25004 2 1 13 24575 2 14 35848 3 15 35217 4 16 32759 5 17 36542 6 18 36109 7 19 40279 8 20 37816 9 21 36338 10 22 37814 11 23 39359 12 24 34151 3 1 25 39862 2 26 50664 3 27 48533 4 28 45382 5 29 43981 6 30 41276 7 31 44284 8 32 46920 9 33 47469 10 34 43187

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section13.3: Simple Regression Models

Problem 1P: The file P13_01.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by a travel agency. a. Does...

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?
The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly numbers of applications for home mortgage loans at a branch office of Northern Central Bank. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b? Is it guaranteed to produce better forecasts for the future?
The file P13_01.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by a travel agency. a. Does a linear trend appear to fit these data well? If so, estimate and interpret the linear trend model for this time series. Also, interpret the R2 and se values. b. Provide an indication of the typical forecast error generated by the estimated model in part a. c. Is there evidence of some seasonal pattern in these sales data? If so, characterize the seasonal pattern.
The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the proportion of Americans under the age of 18 living below the poverty level. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Create a chart of the series with the forecasts superimposed from this optimal smoothing constant. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b? d. Write a short report to summarize your results. Considering the chart in part c, would you say the forecasts are good?
The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?
The file P13_19.xlsx contains the weekly sales of a particular brand of paper towels at a supermarket for a one-year period. a. Using a span of 3, forecast the sales of this product for the next 10 weeks with the moving averages method. How well does this method with span 3 forecast the known observations in this series? b. Repeat part a with a span of 10. c. Which of these two spans appears to be more appropriate? Justify your choice.
A small computer chip manufacturer wants to forecast monthly ozperating costs as a function of the number of units produced during a month. The company has collected the 16 months of data in the file P13_34.xlsx. a. Determine an equation that can be used to predict monthly production costs from units produced. Are there any outliers? b. How could the regression line obtained in part a be used to determine whether the company was efficient or inefficient during any particular month?
The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
Stock market analysts are continually looking for reliable predictors of stock prices. Consider the problem of modeling the price per share of electric utility stocks (Y). Two variables thought to influence this stock price are return on average equity (X1) and annual dividend rate (X2). The stock price, returns on equity, and dividend rates on a randomly selected day for 16 electric utility stocks are provided in the file P13_15.xlsx. Estimate a multiple regression equation using the given data. Interpret each of the estimated regression coefficients. Also, interpret the standard error of estimate and the R-square value for these data.
The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?

SEE MORE QUESTIONS

Recommended textbooks for you

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

SEE MORE TEXTBOOKS

GET THE APP

About FAQ Academic Integrity Sitemap Document Sitemap

Contact Bartleby Contact Research (Essays)High School Textbooks Literature Guides Concept Explainers by Subject Essay Help Mobile App

GET THE APP

Privacy

Your CA Privacy Rights

Your NV Privacy Rights

About Ads

Manage My Data

bartleby, a Learneo, Inc. business

Year	Month	Time Period	COGS
1	1	1	21637
	2	2	25506
	3	3	26594
	4	4	21933
	5	5	23117
	6	6	26979
	7	7	28337
	8	8	28926
	9	9	25015
	10	10	28196
	11	11	24170
	12	12	25004
2	1	13	24575
	2	14	35848
	3	15	35217
	4	16	32759
	5	17	36542
	6	18	36109
	7	19	40279
	8	20	37816
	9	21	36338
	10	22	37814
	11	23	39359
	12	24	34151
3	1	25	39862
	2	26	50664
	3	27	48533
	4	28	45382
	5	29	43981
	6	30	41276
	7	31	44284
	8	32	46920
	9	33	47469
	10	34	43187