Visitor numbers to New Zealand usually decrease from the March quarter to the June quarter. If we observe a smaller than usual decrease from March 2019 to June 2019 then the seasonally adjusted value will show an increase. Select one: True False
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- A researcher has a sample of 6 annual observations {94, 104, 102, 99, 111 and 107} for the CPI in country Z for the period 2015 to 2020, and wants to forecast CPI for the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. The researcher uses 3 different forecasting models: A, B and C. Model A is an AR(1) model with no drift and with an estimated autoregressive coefficient = 0.7. Model B is a MA(1) model with no constant and with an estimated MA coefficient = -0.4 (note the minus !). Model C is a random walk model with no drift. The error terms over the 2015-2020 period were estimated to have the values: {3, -1, 2, 4, -3, 1}. a. Compute the 2021, 2022 and 2023 forecasted values for the consumer price index based on the three models. Show the formulas and the details of your calculations, and explain all the related symbols. b. Suppose that the actual values of the CPI over the 2021, 2022 and 2023 were {108, 114, 105}. Calculate the Root mean square error of the three model forecasts over the 2021-2023…The type of economic indicator that can best be used for business forecasting is the:Q3 Please solve with hand by calculation using formulas (not in excel)
- Savings-Mart (a chain of discount department stores) sells patio and lawn furniture. Sales are seasonal, with higher sales during the spring and summer quarters and lower sales during the fall and winter quarters. The company developed the following quarterly sales forecasting model: Y t=8.25+0.125t2.75D1t+3.50D3t where Y t=predictedsales(million)inquartert 8.25=quarterlysales(million)whent=0 t=timeperiod(quarter)wherethefourthquarterof2002=0,firstquarterof2003=1,secondquarterof2003=2,... D1t={1forfirst-quarterobservations0otherwiseD2t={1forsecond-quarterobservations0otherwiseD3t={1forthird-quarterobservations0otherwise Forecast Savings-Marts sales of patio and lawn furniture for each quarter of 2010.The Questor Corporation has experienced the following sales pattern over a 10-year period: Compute the equation of a trend line (similar to Equation 5.4) for these sales data to forecast sales for the next year. (Let 2004=0,2005=1, etc., for the time variable.) What does this equation forecast for sales in the year 2014? Use a first-order exponential smoothing model with a w of 0.9 to forecast sales for the year 2014.The Accuweather Corporation manufactures barometers and thermometers for weather forecasters. In an attempt to forecast its future needs for mercury, Accuweather's chief economist estimated average monthly mercury needs as: N = 500 + 10X where N = monthly mercury needs (units) and X = time period in months (January 2008= 0). The following monthly seasonal adjustment factors have been estimated using data from the past five years: Month Adjustment Factor January 15% April 10% July -20% September 5% December -10% (a) Forecast Accuweather's mercury needs for January, April, July, September, and December of 2010. (b) The following actual and forecast values of mercury needs in the month of November have been recorded: Year Actual Forecast 2008 456 480 2009 324 360 2007 240 240 Q 4. (B) Emco Company…
- What is the composite index in 2014? Group of answer choices 172 120 153.5 130Comprehensively state the criteria and process of selecting appropriate models for time series forecasting.The rate of U.S. per capita sales of bottled water for the period 2000–2010 can be approximated by s(t) = −0.18t2 + 3t + 15 gallons per year (0 ≤ t ≤ 10), where t is the time in years since the start of 2000.† After conducting a survey of sales in your state, you estimate that consumption in gyms accounts for a fraction f(t) = 0.2 + 0.04t of all bottled water consumed in year t. Assuming that your model is correct, estimate, to the nearest gallon, the total amount of bottled water consumed per capita in gyms from the start of 2002 to the start of 2010. HINT [Rate of consumption = s(t)f(t).] _____gal
- Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 Develop forecasts from June through October using these techniques: Holt's method with alpha=0.2 and beta=0.1. For Holt's model, the level and trend for May are assumed to be 44 and 12. Judge which forecast method is the best based on MAD.Describe briefly the unemployment of small and mid-size business owners in the Philippines due to COVID-19 and discuss its conclusions.No tables, only formulas, please correct answer; (i) ? = 0.048033??, (ii) ? = 0.12683??,(iii) ?^(2) = 0.048227 ??