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- Which of the following time series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast seasonal data?The irregular component of a time series is caused by cyclical or seasonal patterns in the data. Group startsTrue or FalseRespond to each of the items using the following time series data. Period Demand 1 104 2 132 3 117 4 120 5 104 6 141 7 120 8 136 9 109 10 143 11 142 12 109 13 113 14 124 15 113 16 107
- In the theory of time series, earthquakes can be considered as a. Seasonal Variation b. Cyclical Variation c. Irregular Variations d. Secular TrendA time series that shows a recurring pattern over one year or less is said to follow a a. horizontal pattern. b. stationary pattern. c. seasonal pattern. d. cyclical patternThe following data set provides the total number of shipments of core major household appliances in the U.S. from 2000 to 2016 (in millions): Year Shipments (millions) 2000 38.4 2001 38.2 2002 40.8 2003 42.5 2004 46.1 2005 47.0 2006 46.7 2007 44.1 2008 39.8 2009 36.5 2010 38.2 2011 36.0 2012 35.8 2013 39.2 2014 41.5 2015 42.9 2016 44.7 a. Plot the time series. b. Fit a three-year moving average to the data and plot the results. c. Fit a five-year moving average to the data and plot the results. d. Compute a linear trend forecasting equation and plot the trend line. e. Compute a quadratic trend forecasting equation and plot the results.
- The Hungry Person restaurant has posted its sales (in thousands of dollars) for the last two years. Month 1st Year 2nd Year January 201 216 February 216 223 March 232 240 April 201 244 May 221 232 June 213 220 July 220 211 August 214 213 September 202 217 October 217 220 November 224 212 December 236 216 a) Construct a time series plot in excel. (Label axes and graph) b) Develop a four month moving average. Compute MSE and forecast the amount of sales for the next month. c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values. Compute MSE and forecast for the next month. d) Compare the result for the four month average and exponential smoothing. Which appears to provide a better forecast based on MSE? Explain.Bob’s Garden Supply has seen the following annual demand for lime bags over the past 11 years. Year Bags (thousands) Year Bags (thousands) 1 7 7 9 2 10 8 11 3 8 9 12 4 9 10 10 5 10 11 14 6 8 a) Create a time series post. b) Develop a 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year moving averages. What is each forecast for year 12? c) Develop a 3-year weighted moving average in which the most recent year is given a weight of 2 and the other years are given a weight of 1. What is the forecast for year 12? d) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with a smoothing constant of 0.4. Assume that the forecast for year 1 is 6,000 bags. What is the forecast for year 12? e) Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each model in problems b, c, and d. Which model is the best predictor?canton Supplies, inc., is a service firm that employs approximately 100 individuals.Managers of canton Supplies are concerned about meeting monthly cash obligations andwant to develop a forecast of monthly cash requirements. Because of a recent changein operating policy, only the past seven months of data that follow are considered to berelevant.Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Cash Required ($1000s) 205 212 218 224 230 240 246a. construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?b. Using Minitab or excel, develop a linear trend equation to forecast cash requirementsfor each of the next two months.
- Analyse the time series of the following supermarket sales data and present the results in graphical form, including a forecast for the daily sales in week 5. Supermarket sales (K000) for a particular period Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Monday 22 22 24 26 Tuesday 36 34 38 38 Wednesday 40 42 43 45 Thursday 48 49 49 50 Friday 61 58 62 64 Saturday 58 59 58 58#2) Bob’s Garden Supply has seen the following annual demand for lime bags over the past 11 years. Year Bags (thousands) Year Bags (thousands) 1 7 7 9 2 10 8 11 3 8 9 12 4 9 10 10 5 10 11 14 6 8 a) Create a time series post. b) Develop a 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year moving averages. What is each forecast for year 12? c) Develop a 3-year weighted moving average in which the most recent year is given a weight of 2 and the other years are given a weight of 1. What is the forecast for year 12? d) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with a smoothing constant of 0.4. Assume that the forecast for year 1 is 6,000 bags. What is the forecast for year 12? e) Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each model in problems b, c, and d. Which model is the best predictor? f) Excel FileThe Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy providedtime series data for the U.S. average price per gallon of conventional regular gasolinebetween January 2007 and February 2014 (Energy Information Administration website,March 2014). Use the Internet to obtain the average price per gallon of conventionalregular gasoline since February 2014.a. Extend the graph of the time series shown in Figure 1.1.b. What interpretations can you make about the average price per gallon of conventionalregular gasoline since February 2014?c. Does the time series continue to show a summer increase in the average price pergallon? Explain.
