y e 7. n 21. Suppose that a given population can be divided into two parts: those who have a given disease and can infect others, and those who do not have it but are susceptible. Let x be the proportion of susceptible individuals and y the proportion of infectious individuals; then x + y = 1. Assume that the disease spreads by contact between sick and well members of the population and that the rate of spread dy/dt is proportional to the number of such contacts. Further, assume that members of both groups move about freely among each other, so the number of contacts is proportional to the product of x and y. Since x = 1 - y, we obtain the initial value problem dy dt (22) where a is a positive proportionality factor, and yo is the initial proportion of infectious individuals. = ay(1-y), y(0) = yo,

Calculus For The Life Sciences
2nd Edition
ISBN:9780321964038
Author:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Publisher:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Chapter14: Discrete Dynamical Systems
Section14.3: Determining Stability
Problem 11E
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Question

21

in the pond. Is the
if the pond is not to
t the population y of
ibut) in a given area
od, it is intuitively
population may be
ven to extinction.
ions involved in
16
ery."
ume that the rate
y: the more fish
e that the rate at
ositive constant,
le to harvest the
stic equation is
(20)
the biologist
brium points,
ymptotically
hich fish can
t E and the
ction of the
ield-effort
y find the
nstant rate
isfies
(21)
e when
to the
same value as Y in Problem 19d.
be overexploited if y is reduced to a level below K/2.
Epidemics. The use of mathematical methods to study the spread of
contagious diseases goes back at least to some work by Daniel
Bernoulli in 1760 on smallpox. In more recent years many
mathematical models have been proposed and studied for many
different diseases. 17 Problems 21 through 23 deal with a few of the
simpler models and the conclusions that can be drawn from them.
Similar models have also been used to describe the spread of rumors
and of consumer products.
then x + y
21. Suppose that a given population can be divided into two parts:
those who have a given disease and can infect others, and those
who do not have it but are susceptible. Let x be the proportion of
susceptible individuals and y the proportion of infectious individuals;
1. Assume that the disease spreads by contact between
sick and well members of the population and that the rate of spread
dy/dt is proportional to the number of such contacts. Further, assume
that members of both groups move about freely among each other, so
the number of contacts is proportional to the product of x and y. Since
x = 1 - y, we obtain the initial value problem
Ten
=ay(1-y), y(0) = yo,
(22)
where a is a positive proportionality factor, and yo is the initial
proportion of infectious individuals.
a. Find the equilibrium points for the differential equation (22)
and determine whether each is asymptotically stable, semistable,
or unstable.
ble.
y
uilibrium
dy
dt
b. Solve the initial value problem 22 and verify that the
conclusions you reached in part a are correct. Show that y(1)
1 as t → ∞, which means that ultimately the disease spreads
through the entire population.
22. Some diseases (such as typhoid fever) are spread largely by
carriers, individuals who can transmit the disease but who exhibit no
overt symptoms. Let x and y denote the proportions of susceptibles
and carriers, respectively, in the population. Suppose that carriers are
identified and removed from the population at a rate 3, so
dy
dt
to
=-By.
(23)
product of x and y; thus
Suppose also that the disease spreads at a rate proportional to the
dx
dt
= -axy.
(24)
a. Determine y at any time t by solving equation (23) subject to
the initial condition y(0)
small
the ra
at wh
let p
dx/c
by
The
whic
at w
whe
on
oth
Ne
da
sr
сс
m
B
W
i
r
1
Transcribed Image Text:in the pond. Is the if the pond is not to t the population y of ibut) in a given area od, it is intuitively population may be ven to extinction. ions involved in 16 ery." ume that the rate y: the more fish e that the rate at ositive constant, le to harvest the stic equation is (20) the biologist brium points, ymptotically hich fish can t E and the ction of the ield-effort y find the nstant rate isfies (21) e when to the same value as Y in Problem 19d. be overexploited if y is reduced to a level below K/2. Epidemics. The use of mathematical methods to study the spread of contagious diseases goes back at least to some work by Daniel Bernoulli in 1760 on smallpox. In more recent years many mathematical models have been proposed and studied for many different diseases. 17 Problems 21 through 23 deal with a few of the simpler models and the conclusions that can be drawn from them. Similar models have also been used to describe the spread of rumors and of consumer products. then x + y 21. Suppose that a given population can be divided into two parts: those who have a given disease and can infect others, and those who do not have it but are susceptible. Let x be the proportion of susceptible individuals and y the proportion of infectious individuals; 1. Assume that the disease spreads by contact between sick and well members of the population and that the rate of spread dy/dt is proportional to the number of such contacts. Further, assume that members of both groups move about freely among each other, so the number of contacts is proportional to the product of x and y. Since x = 1 - y, we obtain the initial value problem Ten =ay(1-y), y(0) = yo, (22) where a is a positive proportionality factor, and yo is the initial proportion of infectious individuals. a. Find the equilibrium points for the differential equation (22) and determine whether each is asymptotically stable, semistable, or unstable. ble. y uilibrium dy dt b. Solve the initial value problem 22 and verify that the conclusions you reached in part a are correct. Show that y(1) 1 as t → ∞, which means that ultimately the disease spreads through the entire population. 22. Some diseases (such as typhoid fever) are spread largely by carriers, individuals who can transmit the disease but who exhibit no overt symptoms. Let x and y denote the proportions of susceptibles and carriers, respectively, in the population. Suppose that carriers are identified and removed from the population at a rate 3, so dy dt to =-By. (23) product of x and y; thus Suppose also that the disease spreads at a rate proportional to the dx dt = -axy. (24) a. Determine y at any time t by solving equation (23) subject to the initial condition y(0) small the ra at wh let p dx/c by The whic at w whe on oth Ne da sr сс m B W i r 1
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