You are hiking through the woods, and come across some tracks; based on your expe- rience, you estimate there is a 40% chance the tracks are from a dog, a 30% chance the tracks are from a wolf, a 20% chance the tracks are from a coyote, and a 10% chance the tracks are from some other animal. Your friend, also a nature lover, notices some white hairs in the tracks. They know that 20% of dogs have white hair, 50% of wolves have white hair, 10% of coyotes have white hair, and 30% of other animals in the area have white hair. What are the odds of these tracks coming from a dog, wolf, coyote, or other animal
You are hiking through the woods, and come across some tracks; based on your expe- rience, you estimate there is a 40% chance the tracks are from a dog, a 30% chance the tracks are from a wolf, a 20% chance the tracks are from a coyote, and a 10% chance the tracks are from some other animal. Your friend, also a nature lover, notices some white hairs in the tracks. They know that 20% of dogs have white hair, 50% of wolves have white hair, 10% of coyotes have white hair, and 30% of other animals in the area have white hair. What are the odds of these tracks coming from a dog, wolf, coyote, or other animal?
There are 40%= 0.4 chance that the tracks are from a dog
Hence odds of tracks come from dog = 0.4/(1-0.4) = 0.4/0.6 = 4/6
odds of tracks come from dog = 4:6
There are 30% chance that the tracks from wolf
Hence odds of track from wolf =
= 0.3/(1-0.3)
= 0.3/0.7
=3/7
odds that the tracks from wolf = 3:7
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