A Case Of New Migrant Crisis And Its Impact On Central And South East Europe

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SUBJECT: PROPOSED MILITARY OPTIONS IN CASE OF NEW MIGRANT CRISIS

1. INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE. President of the Republic of Croatia will participate at the regional Conference on possible new migration crisis and its impact on Central and South-East Europe. The Conference will focus on (1) new security environment in the southern neighborhood, including North Africa and Middle East, (2) security challenges to European countries affected by the previous migration crisis in 2015, and (3) to address possible more synchronized and coordinated actions and responses dealing with new crisis. As part of the preparation for the Conference, the National Security Council meeting is scheduled at the beginning of February 2017.
According to the
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One of the lessons learned from 2015 migration crisis shows a connection between the migrants entering Europe and terrorist attacks in Europe (Brussels, Paris, and Nice). There is a concern that terrorist, radical and criminal groups can easily recruit or hide their followers in between the immigrants or displaced persons to easily enter the European countries and potentially increase the threat of terrorist attacks.
According to the intelligence estimates , it is expected that Europe will face approximately 15 million migrants from North and Central Africa, as well as from Middle East and Asia in next three to five years. Currently, only in Turkey there are approximately 3 million of refugees and displaced persons, mostly from Syria and Iraq. Migrants will continue to use three Mediterranean Sea routes (Eastern, Central, and Western), as well as the Western Balkans route, because these are also the shortest routes towards the Western Europe.
European Union developed a comprehensive strategy and is implementing its migration policy, including internal and external actions, such as: the EU-Turkey statement, Partnership Framework, Valletta Action Plan, External Investment Plan and etc. The key lessons learned include the need for all EU actors to work in a coordinated manner with the EU and its Member States combining their financial and human resources and their
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