Asset Pricing Theories: Comparing and contrasting CAPM, ATP and Fema-French theory
1226340 Contents
Introduction
Asset pricing theory
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Arbitrage Pricing Theory
Fema and French Model
Introduction
This report will elaborate and describe the three asset pricing models: Capital asset pricing model, Arbitrage pricing theory and Fema and French factor model. It will compare and contrast these model in
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Zhi Da , Re-Jin Guo, Ravi Jagannathan (2011) explained that ‘Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is the workhorse of finance for estimating the cost of capital for project selection. Firms have the options to undertake, reject, or defer a new project, as well as the option to modify or terminate a current project.’ The capital asset pricing model is used to identify these projects using the above formula in which if the result is positive the firm should undertake the project but if the result is negative the firm is eligible to reject the offer. The firm can also try to modify the project in regards to the preference of the given projects.
How is CAPM used for evaluating the performance of managed investment portfolios? http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.321.4782&rep=rep1&type=pdf Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French (2004) describes that ‘The Portfolio model provides an algebraic condition on asset weights in means-variance-efficient portfolio.’ CAPM is used to convert this statement into a testable prediction about the
Financial Instruments A financial asset is something which is defined as an entitlement of future cash flows. However, a financial instrument is a broader term used to describe financial assets and other assets in which there are no organised secondary markets to trade them. However, a financial security is something that can be traded in a secondary market. Attributes of Financial Assets Financial assets are those that: • • • • Have a return of yield expressed in terms of percentage. Have risk in which there is probability the actual return will differ from the expected return. Are liquid in that they can be sold at current market prices with reasonable transaction costs. Are expected to have a set time-pattern of cash flows in or out.
Fama and French’s three factor model attempts to explain the variation of stock prices through a multifactor model that includes a size factor and BE/ME factor in addition to the beta risk factor. Fama-French model essentially extended the CAPM (which breaks up cause of variation of stock price into systematic risk which is non-diversifiable and idiosyncratic risk which is diversifiable) by introducing these two additional factors. Fama and French find that stocks with high beta didn’t have consistently higher returns than stocks with low beta and this indicates that beta was not a useful measure under their model. Their model is based on research findings that sensitivity of movements of the size and BE/ME factor constituted risk, and
At the new WACC of 19%, the home appliance and agricultural machinery projects are valued based on their inherent levels of risk. The beta of the industry average home appliance project is 0.95, whereas the beta for the industry average agricultural machine project is calculated as 0.88. CAPM was then employed to find the cost of capital of each project. The cost of capital for the home appliance and agricultural machinery projects were found to be 10.4% and 9.92%, respectively (Appendix B). This analysis allows Star Company to allocate funds to projects that create returns greater than the industry cost of capital for each specific project.
Week 1 – Introduction – Financial Accounting (Review) Week 2 – Financial Markets and Net Present Value Week 3 – Present Value Concepts Week 4 – Bond Valuation and Term Structure Theory Week 5 – Valuation of Stocks Week 6 – Risk and Return – Problem Set #1 Due Week 7* – Midterm (Tuesday*) Week 8 - Portfolio Theory Week 9 – Capital Asset Pricing Model Week 10 – Arbitrage Pricing Theory Week 11 – Operation and Efficiency of Capital Markets Week 12 – Course Review – Problem Set #2 Due
The CAPM is a single factor model because it based on the hypothesis that required rate of return can be predicted using one factor that being systematic risk. It looks at risk and rates of returns, compares then to the stock market providing a usable measure of risk to help investors determine what return they will get for risking their money in an investment. There are a lot of assumptions and drawbacks of CAPM that lead to the conclusion that those investors utilizing this
CAPM results can be compared to the best expected rate of return that investor can possibly earn in other investments with similar risks, which is the cost of capital. Under the CAPM, the market portfolio is a well-diversified, efficient portfolio representing the non-diversifiable risk in the economy. Therefore, investments have similar risk if they have the same sensitivity to market risk, as measured by their beta with the market portfolio.
The learning objectives for students in this course are: (l) improve your understanding of financial securities and markets, (2) develop the ability to analyze investment companies, common stocks, and bonds for investment decisions, (3) understand how options are
Investors hold diversified portfolios : One of the assumptions of CAPM model is that investors are holding only portfolios which are subjected to systematic risk , the unsystematic risk can be ignored , therefore the unsystematic risk has been ignored (Lakonishok & Shapiro , 1986)
To reduce a firm’s specific risk or residual risk a portfolio should have negative covariance or rather it should have no variance at all, for large portfolios however calculating variance requires greater and sophisticated computing power. As such, Index models greatly decrease the computations needed to calculate the optimum portfolio. The use of such Index models also eliminates illogical or rather absurd results. The Single Index model (SIM) and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) are such models used to calculate the optimum portfolio.
This way, we can use Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as an alternative to the Net Present Value for an overall project assessment.
In order to test the validity of the CAPM, we have applied the two-step testing procedure for asset pricing model as proposed by Fama and Macbeth (1973) in their seminal paper.
Even though there are flaws in the CAPM for empirical study, the approach of the linearity of expected return and risk is readily relevant. As Fama & French (2004:20) stated “… Markowitz’s portfolio model … is nevertheless a theoretical tour de force.” It could be seen that the study of this paper may possibly justify Fama & French’s study that stated the CAPM is insufficient in interpreting the expected return with respect to risk. This is due to the failure of considering the other market factors that would affect the stock price.
Firm has a range of projects to be invested in or finance in to increase the value of the company. However, to increase the value of the company, firm need to choose the worth pursuing project. In this case, firm need to evaluate the projects which the evaluation of a project can be done by cash flow method.
Ever since Ross (1976) proposed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) as an alternative to the capital pricing model, many economists and investors have applied APT across different markets. Whereas the traditional capital pricing model explained asset returns with one beta, sensitivity to the market return, APT decomposes the return with a multiple number of factors. This idea became particularly popular for investors who aim to gain systematic risk other than market risk. However, the model specification aspect has been challenging to many practitioners as the theory does not require any specific sets of variables to be used (Azeez 2006).
Richard Roll, and University and Auburn, University of Washington, and University of Chicago educated economist, began his career researching the effect of major events of stock prices. This experience likely helped him reach the two conclusions he makes in his 1977 “A Critique Of The Asset Pricing Theory’s Tests”, one of the earliest and most influential arguments against CAPM. In the paper, Roll makes two major claims: that CAPM is actually a redundant equation that just further proves the concept of mean-variance efficiency, and that it is impossible to conclusively prove CAPM. His first claim relates to mean-variance efficiency: the idea that mathematically one must be able to create a portfolio that offers the most return for a given amount of risk. Roll claims that all CAPM is doing is testing a portfolio’s mean variance efficiency, and not actually modeling out projected future returns. The second claim in the paper is that there is not enough data about market returns for CAPM to ever prove conclusive. Even if modern technologies could help alleviate some of the burden of testing market returns for publicly traded equities, there is still no way to account for the returns of less liquid markets, where there is less public information. This means it is impossible for