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Crocs Case Study Essay

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CASE: Crocs, Inc. 1. Which comparable company is a useful peer for valuation purposes as of the case date? Will it continue to be a good match into the future? Lululemon is a useful peer for valuation purposes as of the case date. There are three main factors to determine a useful peer. First one is comparable growth. Fiscal year 2006 sales growth of Crocs had been %227 and growth of over %130 was likely for fiscal year 2007. On the other side, compound annual growth rate of sales of Lululemon is over %100 (Exhibit 4). Second main factor is risk. Since that Crocs and Lululemon are new highgrowth brands, they have comparable risks. Last one is profit margin. Crocs has high margins on its products as a result of economies of scale. …show more content…

Prepare a succinct sensitivity analysis using profit margin as the key driver and revisit your “true” value argument. I assume that COGS/Sales rate will be 5% higher than the original assumption. After this assumption I calculate value of equity per share ($47.60) as following. In other words, 5% increase in COGS/Sales results 26.84% decrease in the value of equity per share. Assumptions 2009 2010 2011 39.0% 28.0% 17.0% 48.0% 49.0% 50.0%

Growth % COGS/Sales %

2006 227% 43.5%

2007 134% 41.2%

2008 50.0% 48.0%

2012 6.0% 50.0%

PERIOD YEAR EBIT after tax (EBIAT) + Depreciation =Cash Flow from Operations (CFFO) +/- Change in Net Working Capital +/- Capital Expenditures =Free Cash Flow (FCF) +Terminal Value (TV) =Sum of FCF + TV Present Value - Market Value of Debt = Valuation of Equity / Number of Shares Value of Equity per Share

2007

1 2008

2 2009 329.27 30.87 360.14

3 2010 407.12 41.83 448.95

4 2011 468.03 50.51 518.53

5 Steady 549.64 549.64

0 227.91 0 21.37 0

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