Daily Water Level forecasting in a Reservoir using A Probabilistic Nonlinear Model
A reservoir is a place, either natural or artificial for storing water and this storage may be drawn from for use, often to meet the uneven distribution of water in space and time. The natural flow of rivers and streams differ significantly with the change in weather throughout a year and may lead to overflows (flood) or low flows (droughts) in various regions (Postel and Richter 2012; Poff et al. 2007). Under such conditions, water reservoirs play an important role to alleviate these natural disasters by holding water during periods of floods, and allowing steady release of water during periods of droughts. In addition, these are widely used as the source of water for drinking as well as irrigation. Therefore, accurate forecasts of reservoir water level is highly essential for optimizing the various water management issues.
Concurrently, forecast of water-level in reservoirs is a very challenging task, since it is impacted by not only stream flow volume but also on other factors such as flow velocity, stream flow path, rainfall, temperature, watershed characteristics, tributaries and the like (Bates et al. 2008; Piao et al. 2010; Chamoglou et al. 2014). Tributaries, that convey suspended sediment, severely shorten the reservoir life through siltation and rapidly reduce its storage capacity (Panagopoulos et al. 2008). Water losses through evaporation may also occur in a reservoir (Christensen
Click here to unlock this and over one million essaysGet Access
Water scarcity is increasing worldwide and dramatically affecting first world nations such as Spain, Australia, and the United States. All nations are now starting to recognize that the world's water is a finite resource, and that resource is being drastically altered in both availability and quality by development, climate change and population growth. In the United States, the Colorado River is experiencing rapid declines in volume. Recent studies and data suggest that the changes in frequency, intensity, and timing of the availability of water will have substantial impact on the way we live our lives in the 21st century and beyond. As Letmathe Brakeck said, “I am confident that, under present
Water is one of the most precious resources, which support the life of almost everything in the world. Indeed, the world is covered by 75% water, but most of this water is not suitable for human consumption or use. On the same note, the world has been increasing its consumption of water due to the increasing population, leading to increased demands. The increased water consumption, which has been a result of high population, is worrying because the matter may lead to massive water shortages in the future.
Achieving effective control of the water supply is a major problem. Many areas suffer low rainfall and must store water as insurance against delayed rains. Other areas have an overabundance of water, causing swamps to exist. Large areas suffer from periodic flooding. In recent years, progress has been made in the area of dams and reservoirs. With the continent's large rivers and waterways, Africa has probably the most potential for hydroelectric power in the world. However, the economic and the political standing of the region are not in a position to take advantage of this natural asset.
Industries are expected to use 265 billow cubic meters of water per year (Doc. D). With that said, there is several industries that rely on water (Doc. D). At the same time, the need for water in agriculture decreases and the need for water in domestic issues gradually increases, while the need for water in industries frantically increases (Doc. C). The requirement of water in industries keeps climbing high year after year as the water supply drops. Moreover, many industries must-have a sizeable quantum of water, which drives the water crisis.
Amount of precipitation, droughts, average inflow, and increasing demands of the Upper Basin states and population will lower the water in the reservoirs.
California has always had a warm climate, yet its supply of water has rarely been affected. In 2014 California’s water shortage issue truly began. Due to low amounts of snow in the winter in recent years, California has tried to equal out these shortages by drilling water from underground aquifers. Yet, underground aquifers recharge much slower than surface water sources. California has already made significant drawbacks to attempt to limit the amount of water they use, so these aquifers can recharge. But still resources continue going down and the Central Valley Aquifer’s water level is rapidly declining. Luckily, on April 7, 2017 the drought stage of emergency in California was ended. Yet the issue isn’t truly resolved. Glen MacDonald
The world’s supply of water is in steep decline as more and more is being used each year by more and more people around the globe. Currently, 800 million people do not have access to a drinking source. At the current rate, 1.8 billion people could be living in areas of absolute water scarcity by 2025.
Over thousands of years water has been a very valuable element in our everyday lives. Now we are being faced with a shortage of water affecting not only us, but future generations as well. The drought has become an extreme issue that has affected the United States. For example, in Texas the dry spell has had an impact in families, politics and law, religion, health care, and mass media.
The watershed model is used to develop projections of peak stream flows and water surface (flood)
Information that was used to develop my conclusions were relative to the history of Clearwater River such as the average normal discharge of 40,000cfs, the fact that the river can accommodate 55,000cfs before flooding will occur, and that with every increase of 2600cfs the river rises one foot. For example, this information helped to determine that four of the thirteen noted Peak Flood Discharges listed on the worksheet were not at flood stage as the river is able to accommodate discharges less than 55,000cfs. However, nine of the thirteen Peak Flood Discharges listed on the worksheet were at flood stage or drastically above; with the maximum rise of 17.77 feet above and a discharge rate of 101,200cfs. The average discharge rate of the top three noted floods per information on the Stream Gauge Data of Peak Flow Discharges is 93,613cfs, which is resourceful later in determining the extrapolated 75-year flood.
The hydrology update for the Don River watershed will follow the standard procedure for hydrological modelling including modelling platform selection, watershed delineation, model parameterization, model calibration and validation, and model simulation (scenario evaluation). The main objectives of this model update are as follows:
Water is the fundamental asset to bolster all shape life on earth. Shockingly it is not equally disseminated over the world via season or area. All through the historical backdrop of the world dams and stores have been developed with a specific end goal to anticipate surges, to supply drinking and
Water scarcity is the lack of sufficient available water resources to meet the demands of water usage within a region. It already affects every continent and around 2.8 billion people around the world at least one month out of every year. More than 1.2 billion people lack access to clean drinking water. Water scarcity involves water stress, water shortage or deficits, and water crisis. While the concept of water stress is relatively new, it is the difficulty of obtaining sources of fresh water for use during a period of time,result in further depletion and deterioration of available water resources. Water shortages may be caused by climate change, such as altered weather patterns including droughts or
Natural phenomenon along with being very beautiful and useful for humankind, sometimes become very disastrous and demolishing for them. They show a negative side of nature and indicate some very demolishing aspects of nature, which the humans cannot ignore because of possessing less power. These incidents remind people that they do not have the control over everything and they are very small in front of such natural calamities. However, with strategic and wise planning one can reduce the severity of its effects but cannot save from them completely. Therefore, the areas that often face droughts should remain alert and stimulate their weather experts to continuously analyze weather conditions and give instructions of