Daily Water Level Forecasting At A Reservoir Using A Probabilistic Nonlinear Model Essay

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Daily Water Level forecasting in a Reservoir using A Probabilistic Nonlinear Model
A reservoir is a place, either natural or artificial for storing water and this storage may be drawn from for use, often to meet the uneven distribution of water in space and time. The natural flow of rivers and streams differ significantly with the change in weather throughout a year and may lead to overflows (flood) or low flows (droughts) in various regions (Postel and Richter 2012; Poff et al. 2007). Under such conditions, water reservoirs play an important role to alleviate these natural disasters by holding water during periods of floods, and allowing steady release of water during periods of droughts. In addition, these are widely used as the source of water for drinking as well as irrigation. Therefore, accurate forecasts of reservoir water level is highly essential for optimizing the various water management issues.
Concurrently, forecast of water-level in reservoirs is a very challenging task, since it is impacted by not only stream flow volume but also on other factors such as flow velocity, stream flow path, rainfall, temperature, watershed characteristics, tributaries and the like (Bates et al. 2008; Piao et al. 2010; Chamoglou et al. 2014). Tributaries, that convey suspended sediment, severely shorten the reservoir life through siltation and rapidly reduce its storage capacity (Panagopoulos et al. 2008). Water losses through evaporation may also occur in a reservoir (Christensen

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