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Iran's Central Bank Case Analysis

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Last week, Iran’s central bank announced a staggering 12.5 percent growth rate in GDP for the2016-2017 year (March 2016 to March 2017). This is a critically important data for two reasons. First, Iranian officials and pro-Iran analysts in Washington and Europe have been warning since the Iran-deal was signed that Iran has not been getting enough concessions which could jeopardize the deal, as a result they have demanded more concessions and in many cases received it. This two-digit growth rate refutes all those false alarms. Second, the emboldened post-JCPOA Iran is now using its revived financial resources to directly challenge the United States and its allies in the region. Between Obama’s submission policy and a total war with Iran, …show more content…

As more international companies go into Iran for business or investment, its non-oil economy will see higher rates of growth in the manufacturing and service sectors while the growth rate in the oil sector will go back to normal level. As Iran comes out of economic isolation and can rely more on its manufacturing, agriculture and service sectors, it finds itself on a more diversified and solid financial ground.
The trend discussed above shows that despite claims made by Iranian officials and their supporters in the West, Tehran has steadily and significantly gained from the nuclear deal. Citing these complaints, the Obama administration turned a blind eye on Iran’s bad behavior; moreover, its officials have acted as Tehran’s business and investment advisors, going around the world, putting US diplomatic weight behind efforts to convince cautious international firms and investors to enter Iran despite the huge risks.
The rationale behind such efforts by President Obama and his team, many of who are still holding critical planning and operational positions in the US government, was that as more money and investment flows into Iran its government will become more moderate. That has been proven to be a wrong assumption. As Iran’s access to hard currency and international financial markets expanded, it has double downed on its aggressive foreign policy and support for terrorism; president Rouhani and the parliament has increased the IRGC budget while

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