In his article Time to Ditch the NAIRU, published in the Journal of Economic Perspective, James Galbraith has addressed an alternative view on the controversial NAIRU, or the natural rate of unemployment. His argument is well presented in four parts: the non-compelling theoretical cases for the natural rate; the mismeasure of the NAIRU and the shortcomings of the short-run Phillips curve; professional disagreements and discussions on the location of the NAIRU, and lastly, costs and benefits of using the natural rate of unemployment a policy guide tool. This response paper will critically analyze Galbraith’s view and provide a personal viewpoint on the main ideas related to the NAIRU, in context particularly presented by Galbraith and the world’s economy in general.
In “Unsolved Theoretical Questions”, Galbraith suggests the current and past debates about the concept of the NAIRU, and then raises several concerns about the validity and usefulness of the natural rate. The idea of the natural rate was invented by Milton Friedman (1968) and Edmund Phelps (1968). Specifically, it was Friedman’s presidential lecture that
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Galbraith mentions that the United States has not experienced wage-led inflation since the 1950s, while the main factors that accelerated inflation were oil production, or dollar devaluation. Another interesting question is bought up “Why are no general equilibrium theorists proposing the NAIROP (natural rate of oil production) or the NAIRODD (natural rate of dollar devaluation). According to the old Phillips curve model, if real wage has been stable or falling, can we conclude that the economy has always been above the NAIRU, and the inflation rate should have been falling as a result? (But it actually did not, because of other mentioned
ECON 2301 Principles of Macroeconomics Time: Th 7:05 pm – 9:45 pm Synonym: 40512 Section: 023 Room: NRG2 2120
An increase or decrease in the unemployment rate can have a multiple effects on the Australian economy, both beneficial as well detrimental to the economic conditions and the societal outlook.
In any economy, no matter whether it is controlled by the government or by free markets, people need to work in order to support it. The government does not generate tax revenue by magic. There have to be people in that economy earning an income to ensure that the government continues to collect taxes. In a free market economy, the same applies because there are some services which only an organized government can supply (such as protection from extra-national threats), but there also those which the people get for themselves because of the working of the markets. In any scenario, unemployment is, at the very least, a drag on the economy, and it can be much worse. This paper examines how the unemployment rate in the United States is underreported, and how that fact effects the sluggishness of the present economy.
In 2011, the rate of unemployment is at 9%. Although there is a decline it has been rather slow. Financial analysts predict that unemployment rate would drop to 8%. Even for the people who still have their jobs the hours that they work have been reduced since then. With reduced hours the productivity of the workers would not be fully exploited which in the end, affects the economy. This is so because with a small fiscal base the economy has not been able to recover from recession fast enough. Although there have been positive growths in the employment rates these growths are barely enough. They do little to help in the dire situation. This only means that joblessness is something that the population would have learned to live with.
Consequently, Keynes brought clarity to the subject of the Great Depression and unemployment, his argument suggested that unemployment may not be a temporary condition that the system could naturally recover. Keynes believed that unemployment could in fact reach equilibrium. In this article the Depression was seen as a condition of unemployment brought about a
Beginning with unemployment in the 2007-2009 recession, U.S. unemployment rates peaked at 10% as well as held 41 consecutive months at rates higher than eight percent (Lazear 1). The U.S. economy plummeted during this time; many attributed the shift to a large decrease in the number of employed workers. To be able to better understand the unemployment issue, we must first examine the form of unemployment faced by the U.S. economy. Many believe that the changes faced by the U.S. labor market
The Depression was a gruesome time where people had worked relentlessly to survive. Unemployment today is as severe as it was in the 1930s, the unemployment rate of today is nowhere near the unemployment of the Great Depression. A pair of economists with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas created report called “A Historical Look at the Labor Market During Recessions”. The report is a graph of the WWII Recession, showing that the unemployment rate of a few years ago has past the unemployment rate of the WWII Recession. In 2008 the authors wrote the Unemployment Rate, it’s a report that describes the recessions of the past to the years of 2006 to 2011. The most of the recessions are above or near the average, but the highest recession is the Great Depression.
Another version of this theory maintains that the optimal rate of inflation is the actual rate. For example, if an economy currently has a 6-percent inflation rate, 6 percent is the optimal rate. The inflation itself does not matter and in the long run the Phillips curve is vertical but, lowering the equilibrium rate of inflation results in lower output. It is costly to lower inflation because economic agents have inflation expectations, which are difficult to adjust. A period of higher unemployment results from getting agents to lower expectations and this implies lost output. Since there is no benefit to reducing inflation, the implication is evident - the Fed should stick with the actual rate.
The early to mid-eighties presented a challenge to the fed. A combination of falling oil prices and the Federal Reserve 's control of the money supply, helped to slow down an inflation that had been largely out of control in the previous decade. By the mid-eighties, the economy had bounced back and the United States was entering into one of the longest periods of consistent and sustainable economic growth since the second world war. Along with this growth, the annual inflation rate did not exceed 5%.
However, life has changed, globalization and feminism have had a huge impact on the work environment all around the world. Technology has also made many jobs easier, yet very, very similar. Because of these changes, unemployment has become an issue all around the globe. The government views the unemployment situation as an individual problem. From the government’s perspective, unemployment is due to the lack of training of the individual. However, because
When governments look at policies to reduce unemployment, they tend to look at the short term and then the long term. In the short term, they need to ensure there is sufficient demand and economic growth in the economy to help control cyclical unemployment. This is done by adopting
The United States is currently experiencing a slow recovery from the recession of 2008-09. The current unemployment rate is 7.7%, which is the lowest level since December of 2008 (BLS, 2012). However, this rate is believed to higher than the rate that would occur if the economy was operating at peak efficiency, and it is also believed that there are structural issues still underpinning this performance. For example, the number of Americans who have exited the work force as the result of prolonged unemployment is believed to be higher than usual. In addition, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO, 2012) notes that long-term unemployment of greater than 26 weeks is at a much higher rate than normal, which will have adverse long-run effects on the economy, since workers with long-term unemployment often find their career paths derailed.
We are entering a new phase in world history - one in which fewer and fewer and fewer workers will be needed to produce the goods and services for the global population...For the whole of the modern era, people's worth has been measured by the market value of their labour...now new ways of defining human worth and social relationships will need to be explored (Rifkin 1996). Life has changed, globalisation and feminism have had a huge impact on the work environment around the world. Technology has also made many jobs redundant. Unemployment has become an issue all
Unemployment has always been something that Americans have worried about since the great depression in which one in every four people was unemployed. High unemployment has an impact on every one even those whom are still currently employed. For example if the unemployment rate is particular high then even those with jobs get worried. Unemployment is also separated in to distinct categories base on which group is the focus of the study. The categories can be by race, age or location, for example the unemployment rate of those between the age of sixty and sixty-five could be compared those between the ages of thirty and thirty-five. These categories allow economist to see which groups are the best and which groups are worst off. One group
Unemployment and inflation are factors that have negative effects on the performance of the economy as a whole. Therefore, policies to achieve low and stable price inflation, a high and stable level of employment are big macroeconomics issues of our time. This essay focuses on discussing the role of government policy on reducing unemployment and inflation in relation to Keynesian and Monetarist approaches, including examples of impacts of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies on New Zealand economy.