LL Beans
Please submit your analysis of this case. In addition, be prepared to discuss your analysis in class. 1. How significant (quantitatively) of a problem is the mismatch between supply and demand for LL Bean?
As per the historical series and its associated statistical description (see graph below), we can observe that there is a significant spread between the A/F ratios sine the standard deviation equals 1/3 of the mean. Besides in cases, there is mismatch beyond 50% between the forecast and the actual demand. Besides the mean value shows that there is a 9% bias meaning that on average the actual is always 9% above the forecast. It should be noticed as well that there distribution is skewed to the left with higher values
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the Cu/(Co+Cu) ratio). • There is a grey area in the case to know how LL Bean really assesses the number of actual for products generating a demand higher than the forecast. An overestimation of lost sales can create a bias loop since it will impact the next year order commitment by generating mechanically higher commitment orders. As per the mean (8% above 1) and the distribution that is skewed to the left, it could be inferred that there is a systematic overestimation of lost sales which may explain that there are not different common pattern across items and buyers. • We can’t suggest any bias due to outlier since they mention that there have not found any specific pattern. • The split between “new” and “never out” for the historical errors makes sense since both nature of articles share a common property. • We recommend making use of the phone calls and orders through all selling channel to build more robust analytical data and reduce the potential bias of data used to build the A/F distribution.
4. What do you think about LL Bean’s forecasting process? Is that the best that they can do?
Problems • It seems unreliable and not data driven as per the use of rules of thumb and use of consensus that may reduce the weight of the expert. • Forecast reconciliation issue with the bottom up (items by
The Beanes family is traced back from Christopher Banes who was an immigrant from Scotland and started his life as a merchant and planter. Dr. William Beanes is a fourth generation Scottish man born on the 24th of January 1749 to the parents of William Beanes and Mary Bradley at Brook Ridge, a thousand acre farm near Croom, Maryland on the Patuxent River. His father was the first in his family to move to Prince Georges County. Brooke Ridge was given to his great grandmother, Anne Brooke since her brother died childless in 1671. William Beanes was one of seven children in his family (Magruder 2).
Critically evaluate the assumptions on which your forecasts are based. What developments could alter your results? Is Mr. Cowins correct in his belief that Hampton can repay the loan in December?
4. Based on your analysis in (1) – (3) above, what is your overall conclusion regarding the
While it is true that Ms. Forthright had always exceeded her budgeted sales, the extent to which she diverts away from the managers projections does not necessarily means that she is violating honesty and integrity. Her decision on what her budgeted sales for the year is highly relevant to the data available to her. Her projections tends to lie between the field manager and the marketing manager’s predictions, which can be reasonable because in the past years, the field manager’s projections tend to be over what the actual sales of the year will be.
(i.e. products that they get to order only once because of long supplier lead times). First they determine a forecast for an item and then they have a process for converting that forecast into an order quantity.
* Our company’s sales forecast has been based on performance from previous years along with market circumstances. We are looking at the future of the business objectively which we then can evaluate past to
I played the bean game by myself, I did this at the school in an Eastshore classroom. I chose the items that I chose, because they represented my values, and mostly because they didn’t cost as much as other options. I was influenced by my values for the majority of options in the game. For example, instead of getting my own place, I stayed with my parents. Picking that option better fit my values because I would rather have savings when I get out of college, than I would my own place.
Write an 8 to 10 page Case Analysis of the following article (which can be found in the Ashford Online ProQuest database):
“Beyond the Bean” has a very wide range of potential customers. It is appropriate for any lifestyle. Whether you are young of old, male or female, everyone needs entertainment and social interaction.
The analysis of the table-1 reveals that future sales have been projected to grow at the rate of 20% per annum. The validity and reasonableness of there projections is questionable. There seems to be a very remote possibility of meeting their projections given the current scenario of the Letsgo. The points are raised about the validity and reasonableness of the projections:
Mr. Fischer made relatively conservative forecasts based on largely reasonable assumptions of seasonality, investment needed for PPE and continuing levels of sales. Based on the data at Mr. Fischer had in June 1995 it is difficult to criticize his projections.
This case was written by Andrew Chen, INSEAD MBA July 2013, under the supervision of Claudia Zeisberger, Affiliate
Please prepare an analysis of this case. Your write-up should be 4 to 7 pages. Each of the following questions should be addressed individually:
In addition to the direct signals provided by the information, retail sales data also provides an even greater amount of indirect signals when combined with additional indicators. As soon as the information is released, investors around the world use it combined with other economic data released that day to predict the short-term direction of a variety of financial markets, most notably the equity, fixed income and currency markets. It is also combined with information on individual companies to estimate future potential revenues and earnings as well as possible subsequent moves in their stock prices.