Introduction
Crude oil is the largest individual source of the world’s energy needs, it’s used in the production of many other products such as plastics, synthetics, fuels, bitumen etc. and is used as a benchmark for the pricing of other energy sources such as LNG. Oil’s impact on the economic spectrum i.e. from the hip pocket of the “man or woman on the street” to national finances cannot be understated. Oil prices are determined through the interaction of physical and financial markets, therefore making it’s pricing exceedingly complex. In Part A of this report, we endeavour to predict whether the Brent crude oil price will be above or below the current “spot” price of around US$60 per barrel in one and five years time and we consider demand concerns in China, supply issues within the US and OPEC (Saudi Arabia especially) as well as global geopolitical impacts. In Part B, fuel is the largest operating expense for an airline and we will assess the vulnerability of the share prices for Qantas and Virgin Australia to movements in the oil price.
Part A
1. Chinese Demand
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (2014), China is the world 's second largest oil consumer behind the U.S. and with a fast-growing economy that accounted for one-third of the world’s oil consumption growth in 2013 (and expected for 2014), its demand profile is a key determinant of Brent crude oil price. Factors include:
• It is expected that China will target a Gross Domestic Product
Some emergent countries have put a lot of effort to find new reservoir or find the best way to recover oil from deep seas such as The pre-salt in Brazil. America has high projections for the future with fracking. However, lower prices would put at risk investments in unconventional sources. For example, tar sands, shale oil, deep sea and fracking. Our forecast is that the crude oil price tend to slowly rise until the market balance it self to avoid oversupply especially because of the weakening in the global oil
Discuss how rising oil prices might affect the macroeconomic performance of an economy. (25 marks)
Graph 1 represents the major companies and nations which product crude oil. It also represents how the bent crude oil price has fluctuated from 2004 until 2014. From 2004-2008 it is evident that there is a steady rise in oil prices, from $35-$150 per barrel. Towards the end of 2008 it is evident that there is a significant drop in oil prices, from $150- $32 per barrel. This is due to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) where the stock market collapsed on October 28, 1928, through this came the rapid decrease in oil prices. From 2009-2011 there is a steady increase in oil prices which was caused by the stock market repairing itself from impact of the GFC. In 2013 we are able to see declining oil
The demand for oil has been predicted to increase despite the high price of oil. Sources of the demand for oil continue to increase with time worldwide. As countries industrialize and develop, their oil consumption increases together with their economy. Examples of countries that have their economy growing fastest and steadily are India and China. These two countries have their economy growing and the impact their economic growth has on oil demand is great. Some developed countries are also about to change their habits on oil demand. This will be likely adapted faster if the prices of oil continue to rise. Oil prices are determined by the traders and speculators who control and manipulate the future oil market (Anderson, 1).
different industries. Despite the increasing global oil demand [5], Canadian oil has been trading at a
Fuel costs can change rapidly, making it difficult for consumers to adjust to the system. In fact, the petroleum industry is one of the
The United States consumes more than 25% of the world’s petroleum products which is a large percentage, considering only 3% of the world’s oil reserves are produced by the United States. Given the demand for petroleum products such as gasoline, understanding why Crude oil prices have skyrocketed in recent years, is not hard. According to the article “Ending America’s Oil Addiction,” the surge in crude oil prices can be reduced in large part to the simple concepts of supply and demand. (Cooper, 2008)
Energy efficient alternatives to oil, such as solar power and hybrid cars, have grown in popularity over the recent years. When gas prices were at an all time high, people began purchasing hybrid cars to cut gas costs. For example, from 2010 to 2014, sales in electric cars increased by almost 120,000 cars a year. As demand for electric cars rose, demand for oil decreased. Moreover, decreased consumption of oil in other parts of the world had led to less demand. Recent economic problems in China, one of the largest importers of crude oil, and developing parts of the worlds have led to an overall global drop in demand for oil. When a situation occurs where there is an excess amount in the quantity of a product compared to the amount of product that is needed, the price of the item drops. Similarly, as less oil is demanded throughout the world and a record number of oil is being produced, the price of oil is driven
Shale revolution started about ten years ago due to technological developments such horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The increasing exploitation of shale oil significantly affected the oil market. In this report, WTI oil price was predicted over the next five years using historical data. A discussion of major factors that historically affected oil prices is presented. Historical events were linked to current and expected future events to evaluate the predicted prices. To further evaluate the forecasted prices, they were compared to the predicted prices by the Economy Forecast Agency.
In the recent months, the prices of crude oil have dropped from 140 dollars per barrel to 60 dollars a barrel in the latest date. To begin with, there is technological revolution in the energy extraction referred to as “fracking” which has significantly increased supply of natural gas and petroleum in the America, allowing them not to depend heavily on the foreign sources of crude oil. Secondly, Saudi Arabia and the other countries
The United States is the largest import of oil, which produces over 10 million barrels of oil each day. That a lot of oil that they are producing in my opinion. As the years have passed by we have gotten oil for our foreign country this happen in the Gulf War. We also need oil from other countries so in all reality we have to reserve all the oil that we get and make sure we keep up the rapport that we have with the other countries in order to keep the United States out of finically situations. In all we have to be safe about who we deal with and how we react, because we don’t want to cause any infractions with other people or countries and then have to pay for what we have done. “Even as Saudi Arabia diverges from U.S. foreign policy objectives
Oil prices affect most American's daily lives. Whether it is used to fuel your car, a plane, to heat your home, or even if it is just used inside products, like plastic that we use daily, oil plays a role in all of our lives. Last year, in 2015, an extreme decline in gas prices swept the United States. For example, oil prices have decreased to less than $30 a barrel which is the lowest it has ever been in 12 years. There are many factors that can contribute to this sudden decline in gas prices, but their are three that are the most relevant. These include, the recent advancements in other fuel sources, the changes in the leading oil suppliers of the world, and the simple economic concept of supply and demand. These three ideas are all important in contributing to the fall of gas prices.
From different varieties and grades of crude oil, benchmarks are often used to set the prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent are two crude benchmarks that Canadian refiners often encounter. Brent is the leading global benchmark for crude oil prices because of its ability to ship to practically any oil receiving marine terminal in the world (Statistics Canada, 2013). Any geopolitical events that can possibly affect the supply and demand for crude oil will influence the price. As a result, crude oil prices in Canada are affected by foreign and domestic issues. For example, in 2005, Hurricane Katrina blocked oil production around the Southern Gulf Coast of the United States. As the supply decreased and the demand remained the same, oil prices over a barrel increased in a short period of time. President Bush sent thirty million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to bring the oil price down (Oil Price, 2009). Political problems in the Middle East have also caused many worries over the access of oil supply this region produces. In 2008, oil prices went over one hundred and thirty six dollars a barrel due to global concerns of the wars happening in Iraq and Afghanistan (Oil Price, 2009). The oil prices increased because buyers were afraid the oil was unable to be properly delivered. As these oil prices rise, consumers cut back on driving to save money. This decreased demand, which also decreased the
In 2016, the crude oil price movement prices were unpredictable. The OPEC reference basket dropped 10 percent to $43.22 per pound. The ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI both went down by 8.4 percent with ICE Brent at $47.08 per pound and NYMEX WTI at $45.76 per pound. This showed that there were uncertainties in the petroleum market. The future prices were predicted for 2017 that it would move higher. The World’s economic growth predictions was the same at 2.9% for 2016 but increased to 3.1% for 2017. Because of the 3rd quarter of 2016 in Japan and US, the OCED growth went from 1.6% to 1.7%. The demand for oil growth in 2016 has been increasing slightly to 1.24 mb/d. In 2017, the demand will be predicted with a decrease to 1.15 mb/d. OECD will
Since the past few decades, owning a car has become a necessity in order to commute from one place to another. However, cars do not work automatically, they require fuel. Since the past decade, the petroleum industry has become one of the leading industries impacting the nation’s economy. Oil has become an essential commodity as it is utilized in transportation vehicles, serves as a raw material for manufacturing plastics, and is utilized in homes for cooking. America’s economy is greatly dependent on petroleum as it is the “black gold” of the nation. The considerable significance of oil has led to the drilling of it, which is not only limited to land, but also the oceans. Offshore drilling is a method in which petroleum is extracted from underneath the seabed. It is one of the significant technological advancements in the past few decades. However, the ones who are involved in the process of offshore oil production are humans, and humans tend to make mistakes. In 1969, due to a human error, an oil spill occurred and natural gas, oil, and mud shot up the well and oozed into the ocean (“Offshore Drilling”). The oil spilled led to an environmental disaster which killed thousands of marine animals and distorted the environment. In order to prevent the same error, the government passed a moratorium in 1981, banning more than 85 percent of the country’s oil drilling sites (“Offshore Drilling”). The moratorium restricted the United States to mass-produce its natural resource.